{"title":"利用有限数据为决策支持建立可行性模型:蜥蜴案例研究","authors":"Ashley B.C. Goode, Nathan Allan, Conor P. McGowan","doi":"10.3996/jfwm-23-024","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"\n Plateau Spot-tailed Earless Lizards Holbrookia lacerata are a species of ground lizard in central Texas that are under review for listing as endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, but heretofore no predictive models of population dynamics or viability have been developed. We used limited available data and published demographic rates in a population viability analysis model to predict the future status of these lizards under parametric and ecological uncertainty and temporal variability. Even in cases where data are sparse and life history information are limited, viability models can help clarify the consequences of management choices given the uncertainty. Our model predicted that on average populations will decline in the future. Quasi-extinction probability was low 20 years into the future but up to 0.60 by 50 years. Extinction risk was highly dependent on the road mortality effect and the proportion of the population exposed to roadways, both of which are currently uncertain quantities. Despite these unknowns, our model enables managers to consider the future abundance and extinction risk for the species and make decisions about management to project population viability and also identifies key uncertainties for future research and monitoring.","PeriodicalId":49036,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.9000,"publicationDate":"2024-06-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Viability Modeling for Decision Support with Limited Data: a Lizard Case Study\",\"authors\":\"Ashley B.C. Goode, Nathan Allan, Conor P. McGowan\",\"doi\":\"10.3996/jfwm-23-024\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"\\n Plateau Spot-tailed Earless Lizards Holbrookia lacerata are a species of ground lizard in central Texas that are under review for listing as endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, but heretofore no predictive models of population dynamics or viability have been developed. We used limited available data and published demographic rates in a population viability analysis model to predict the future status of these lizards under parametric and ecological uncertainty and temporal variability. Even in cases where data are sparse and life history information are limited, viability models can help clarify the consequences of management choices given the uncertainty. Our model predicted that on average populations will decline in the future. Quasi-extinction probability was low 20 years into the future but up to 0.60 by 50 years. Extinction risk was highly dependent on the road mortality effect and the proportion of the population exposed to roadways, both of which are currently uncertain quantities. Despite these unknowns, our model enables managers to consider the future abundance and extinction risk for the species and make decisions about management to project population viability and also identifies key uncertainties for future research and monitoring.\",\"PeriodicalId\":49036,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-06-07\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"93\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.3996/jfwm-23-024\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"环境科学与生态学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3996/jfwm-23-024","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION","Score":null,"Total":0}
Viability Modeling for Decision Support with Limited Data: a Lizard Case Study
Plateau Spot-tailed Earless Lizards Holbrookia lacerata are a species of ground lizard in central Texas that are under review for listing as endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, but heretofore no predictive models of population dynamics or viability have been developed. We used limited available data and published demographic rates in a population viability analysis model to predict the future status of these lizards under parametric and ecological uncertainty and temporal variability. Even in cases where data are sparse and life history information are limited, viability models can help clarify the consequences of management choices given the uncertainty. Our model predicted that on average populations will decline in the future. Quasi-extinction probability was low 20 years into the future but up to 0.60 by 50 years. Extinction risk was highly dependent on the road mortality effect and the proportion of the population exposed to roadways, both of which are currently uncertain quantities. Despite these unknowns, our model enables managers to consider the future abundance and extinction risk for the species and make decisions about management to project population viability and also identifies key uncertainties for future research and monitoring.
期刊介绍:
Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management encourages submission of original, high quality, English-language scientific papers on the practical application and integration of science to conservation and management of native North American fish, wildlife, plants and their habitats in the following categories: Articles, Notes, Surveys and Issues and Perspectives. Papers that do not relate directly to native North American fish, wildlife plants or their habitats may be considered if they highlight species that are closely related to, or conservation issues that are germane to, those in North America.