提高最低工资的情景模式:估计对货币贫困的影响

IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS Voprosy Ekonomiki Pub Date : 2024-06-05 DOI:10.32609/0042-8736-2024-6-133-149
E. A. Gorina, S. A. Ter-Akopov, A. А. Chervyakova, S. Biryukova, O. Sinyavskaya
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引用次数: 0

摘要

文章介绍了提高最低工资对俄罗斯居民收入、贫困率和差距的影响的情景建模。作者利用俄罗斯国家统计局人口收入和参与社会计划调查的数据,考虑了三种提高最低工资的方案,从 6.3%(2023 年的实际增长)到激进提高到相当于劳动适龄公民 1.5 个生活水平的数值。对劳动力市场反应的一系列假设进行的估算表明,在一定范围内提高最低工资会导致人均收入、贫困差距和贫困率的微弱或适度增长。即使在激进方案中,贫困率的下降幅度也在初始百分比的-16%到-19%之间,总收入赤字的下降幅度在-12%到-17%之间。限制提高最低工资对货币贫困率影响的主要因素与俄罗斯家庭结构有关。一方面,三分之二工资最低的俄罗斯工人生活在按正式标准不属于贫困的家庭中。另一方面,如果家庭中有未成年子女,高于贫困线的个人收入可能不足以克服整个家庭的贫困。
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Scenario modeling of increasing the minimum wage: estimating impact on monetary poverty
The article presents scenario modeling of the effects of an increase in the minimum wage on the population income and the poverty rate and gap in Russia. The authors use data from the Rosstat Survey of Population Income and Participation in Social Programs and consider three scenarios for increasing the minimum wage ranging from 6.3% (actual increase in 2023) to a radical increase to a value corresponding to 1.5 subsistence levels of a working-age citizen. The estimates accounting for a number of assumptions about the reaction of the labor market show that an increase in the minimum wage in a given range leads to a weak or moderate increase in per capita income, poverty gap, and poverty rate. Even within the radical scenario, the reduction in poverty rate ranges from –16% to –19% of the initial percentage, and the reduction in the total income deficit ranges from –12% to –17%. The main factors limiting the impact of increasing the minimum wage on the monetary poverty rate are related to the structure of Russian households. On the one hand, two thirds of Russian workers with the lowest wages live in households that are not poor by formal criteria. On the other hand, individual earnings above the poverty line may not be sufficient to overcome the poverty of the entire household if it includes minor children.
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来源期刊
Voprosy Ekonomiki
Voprosy Ekonomiki ECONOMICS-
CiteScore
1.80
自引率
25.00%
发文量
86
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