重新审视考虑方向性的极端风速估算

IF 3 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENGINEERING, MECHANICAL Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics Pub Date : 2024-06-07 DOI:10.1016/j.probengmech.2024.103641
Ying Luo , Mingshan Guan , Yan Han , Hongke Shi , Xiaoyun Han
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在估算极端风速时,通常会忽略风向的影响。然而,作为风的一个重要参数,它应该得到合理的考虑。目前,可以通过定向风速或直接将风向作为变量来考虑风向的影响。根据气候站的风速数据,将风向分为均匀扇形和非均匀扇形。然后应用 Copula 函数建立方向风速的联合分布。随后讨论了方向扇区划分的影响。同时,还建立了基于 copula 函数的风速和风向联合分布模型。根据联合分布模型,基于条件概率估算出指定风向下的极端风速。此外,还比较了基于上述两种方法的考虑风向的极端风速。结果表明,风向的分类会影响极端风速的估算。此外,根据风速和风向的联合分布估算指定风向下的极端风速并不能反映实际的风力特征。通过比较考虑方向性的不同方法,基于方向风速联合分布的结果似乎更为合理。
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Revisiting the estimation of extreme wind speed considering directionality

In the estimation of extreme wind speed, the effect of wind direction is usually ignored. Nevertheless, as a vital parameter of the wind, it should be reasonably taken into consideration. Nowadays, the influence of wind direction can be considered through directional wind speed or directly regarding it as a variable. Based on wind speed data of climate stations, the wind directions are divided into uniform and non-uniform sectors. Copula function is then applied to establish the joint distribution of directional wind speed. The effect of the partition of directional sectors is discussed subsequently. Meanwhile, a joint distribution model of wind speed and wind direction based on copula function is also set up. According to the joint distribution, extreme wind speeds under specified wind directions are estimated based on conditional probability. Besides, extreme wind speeds considering wind directionality based on the aforementioned two methods are compared. Results show that the classification of wind direction will affect the estimation of extreme wind speed. In addition, the estimation of extreme wind speed under specified wind direction based on the joint distribution of wind speed and wind direction does not reflect the actual wind characteristics. Through the comparison of different methods considering directionality, the result based on the joint distribution of directional wind speed seems more reasonable.

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来源期刊
Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics
Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics 工程技术-工程:机械
CiteScore
3.80
自引率
15.40%
发文量
98
审稿时长
13.5 months
期刊介绍: This journal provides a forum for scholarly work dealing primarily with probabilistic and statistical approaches to contemporary solid/structural and fluid mechanics problems encountered in diverse technical disciplines such as aerospace, civil, marine, mechanical, and nuclear engineering. The journal aims to maintain a healthy balance between general solution techniques and problem-specific results, encouraging a fruitful exchange of ideas among disparate engineering specialities.
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