[Spatiotemporal Simulation of Soil Pb Accumulation Process in Urban-Rural Areas: A Case Study of a Large City in Central China].

The high intensity of diverse human activities in urban-rural areas leads to complex soil Pb accumulation processes and high spatiotemporal heterogeneity, making it difficult to reveal the spatiotemporal characteristics of soil Pb accumulation in these areas. This study used a typical urban-rural area in a large city in Central China as the study area, constructed a soil Pb accumulation model, and established a spatiotemporal simulation method for soil Pb accumulation processes combining this model and land use classification and simulation results. Using this method, we simulated the soil Pb content in the study area from 2013 to 2040 and elucidated the future spatiotemporal variation characteristics of soil Pb content. The results showed that the average soil Pb content in the study area in 2013 was approximately 1.77 times the background value of the Pb content in the surface soil of the province where the city is located, indicating significant soil Pb pollution. The soil Pb content was predicted to continue increasing from 2013 to 2040, with relatively low increases (0.53-2.25 mg·kg^-1) in the western, northern, and southern parts of the study area, accounting for 25.46 % of the total area, and relatively high increases (3.98-5.70 mg·kg^-1) in the eastern part, accounting for 17.14 % of the total area. The increase in the area of forest land and the decrease in the area of water bodies and grassland in the eastern part of the study area led to a substantial rise in soil Pb content in this region; in addition, the spatial distribution of soil Pb content was highly correlated with the distribution of important factories and transportation facilities. This study overcomes the limitations of previous research that treated land use as unchanging and to a certain extent reflects the impact of regional land use changes on the heavy metal accumulation process. It provides a method for simulating the soil Pb accumulation process in urban-rural areas and a basis for controlling soil Pb pollution in the city's urban-rural areas.