预测 5 年代谢功能障碍相关脂肪性肝病风险的提名图:回顾性队列研究。

IF 2.6 3区 医学 Q3 ENDOCRINOLOGY & METABOLISM Endocrine Connections Pub Date : 2024-07-13 Print Date: 2024-08-01 DOI:10.1530/EC-24-0186
Lei Gao, Wenxia Cui, Dinghuang Mu, Shaoping Li, Nan Li, Weihong Zhou, Yun Hu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的建立一个基于提名图的模型,以估算中国人群患代谢功能障碍相关性脂肪性肝病(MASLD)的5年风险:我们按 7:3 的比例将 7582 名参与者随机分为两组:一组负责训练集,包括 5307 个病例;另一组负责使用 2275 个病例验证模型。采用最小绝对收缩和选择算子(LASSO)模型来确定所有潜在变量中相关性最高的变量。通过纳入这些选定的变量,构建了一个逻辑模型,随后使用提名图对这些变量进行了可视化。利用接收器操作特征曲线(ROC)、校准曲线和决策曲线分析(DCA)对模型的判别能力、校准和临床实用性进行了评估:在为期 5 年的随访中,共有 1034 人(13.64%)被新诊断为 MASLD。我们利用 8 个变量(性别、体重指数、腰围、血红蛋白、丙氨酸氨基转移酶、尿酸、甘油三酯和高密度脂蛋白)建立了一个 5 年 MASLD 风险预测模型。提名图显示,训练集的 ROC 下面积为 0.795(95% 置信区间 (CI):0.779-0.811),验证集的 ROC 下面积为 0.785(95% 置信区间 (CI):0.760-0.810)。校准曲线显示,观察到的 MASLD 风险与预测的 MASLD 风险之间存在 5 年的一致性。DCA曲线显示了该提名图在5%到50%的阈值概率范围内的实用性:我们创建并测试了一个预测未来 5 年 MASLD 流行风险的提名图。
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Nomogram for predicting 5-year metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease risk: retrospective cohort study.

Objective: To create a nomogram-based model to estimate the Chinese population's 5-year risk of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD).

Methods: We randomly divided 7582 participants into two groups in a 7:3 ratio: one group was assigned to work with the training set, which consisted of 5307 cases, and the other group was assigned to validate the model using 2275 cases. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator model was employed to ascertain the variables with the highest correlation among all potential variables. A logistic model was constructed by incorporating these selected variables, which were subsequently visualized using a nomogram. The discriminatory ability, calibration, and clinical utility of the model were assessed using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results: During the 5-year follow-up, 1034 (13.64%) total participants were newly diagnosed with MASLD. Using eight variables (gender, body mass index, waist, hemoglobin, alanine aminotransferase, uric acid, triglycerides, and high-density lipoprotein), we built a 5-year MASLD risk prediction model. The nomogram showed an area under the ROC of 0.795 (95% CI: 0.779-0.811) in the training set and 0.785 (95% CI: 0.760-0.810) in the validation set. The calibration curves revealed a 5-year period of agreement between the observed and predicted MASLD risks. DCA curves illustrated the practicality of this nomogram over threshold probability profiles ranging from 5% to 50%.

Conclusion: We created and tested a nomogram to forecast the risk of MASLD prevalence over the next 5 years.

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来源期刊
Endocrine Connections
Endocrine Connections Medicine-Internal Medicine
CiteScore
5.00
自引率
3.40%
发文量
361
审稿时长
6 weeks
期刊介绍: Endocrine Connections publishes original quality research and reviews in all areas of endocrinology, including papers that deal with non-classical tissues as source or targets of hormones and endocrine papers that have relevance to endocrine-related and intersecting disciplines and the wider biomedical community.
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