预测系统性红斑狼疮患者肾脏增生性狼疮肾炎风险的提名图。

IF 4.5 3区 医学 Q2 IMMUNOLOGY Clinical immunology Pub Date : 2024-06-22 DOI:10.1016/j.clim.2024.110296
Panyu Yang , Xi Tang , Penghao Li , Zhongyu Liu , Chao Zhang , Yuxiang Wu , Xiaoxi Zeng , Yongkang Wu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

增殖性狼疮肾炎(PLN)是系统性红斑狼疮(SLE)的一种严重威胁器官的表现,与高死亡率和肾功能衰竭相关。在此,我们分析了 1287 例有肾脏表现的系统性红斑狼疮患者的数据,其中 780 例经肾活检证实为增殖性或非增殖性 LN 患者,这些患者被分为训练队列(547 例)和验证队列(233 例)。通过应用最小绝对收缩和选择算子(LASSO)回归法结合多变量逻辑回归分析,建立了预测 PLN 的提名图,然后通过接收器操作特征曲线(ROC)、校准曲线和临床决策曲线(DCA)对训练队列和验证队列进行评估。训练队列中模型的 ROC 曲线下面积(AUC)为 0.921(95% 置信区间 (CI):0.895-0.946),训练队列内部验证的 AUC 为 0.909,外部验证的 AUC 为 0.848(95% CI:0.796-0.900)。根据校准和 DCA 曲线的评估,提名图显示出良好的性能。综上所述,我们的研究结果表明,我们的提名图包含了 12 个重要的相关变量,对预测系统性红斑狼疮患者罹患 PLN 的风险具有临床价值,从而改善患者的预后。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

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A nomogram to predict the risk of proliferative lupus nephritis in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus involving the kidneys

Proliferative lupus nephritis (PLN) is a serious organ-threatening manifestation of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) that is associated with high mortality and renal failure. Here, we analyzed data from 1287 SLE patients with renal manifestations, including 780 of which were confirmed as proliferative or non-proliferative LN patients by renal biopsy, divided into a training cohort (547 patients) and a validation cohort (233 patients). By applying a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression approach combined with multivariate logistic regression analysis to build a nomogram for prediction of PLN that was then assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and clinical decision curves (DCA) in both the training and validation cohorts. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the model in the training cohort was 0.921 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.895–0.946), the AUC of internal validation in the training cohort was 0.909 and the AUC of external validation was 0.848 (95% CI: 0.796–0.900). The nomogram showed good performance as evaluated using calibration and DCA curves. Taken together, our results indicate that our nomogram that comprises 12 significantly relevant variables could be clinically valuable to prognosticate on the risk of PLN in SLE, so as to improve patient prognoses.

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来源期刊
Clinical immunology
Clinical immunology 医学-免疫学
CiteScore
12.30
自引率
1.20%
发文量
212
审稿时长
34 days
期刊介绍: Clinical Immunology publishes original research delving into the molecular and cellular foundations of immunological diseases. Additionally, the journal includes reviews covering timely subjects in basic immunology, along with case reports and letters to the editor.
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