Temporal evolution of ascending aortic aneurysm wall stress predicts all-cause mortality.

Objectives: Diameter-based risk stratification for elective repair of ascending aortic aneurysm fails to prevent type A dissection in many patients. Aneurysm wall stresses may contribute to risk prediction; however, rates of wall stress change over time are poorly understood. Our objective was to examine aneurysm wall stress changes over 3-5 years and subsequent all-cause mortality.

Methods: Male veterans with <5.5 cm ascending aortic aneurysms and computed tomography at baseline and 3- to 5-year follow-up underwent three-dimensional aneurysm model construction. Peak circumferential and longitudinal wall stresses at systole were calculated using finite element analysis. Temporal trends were assessed by mixed-effects modelling. Changes in aortic wall stresses, diameter and length over time were evaluated as predictors of subsequent 3-year all-cause mortality by Cox proportional hazards modelling.

Results: Sixty-two male veterans were included in the study. Yearly changes in geometric and biomechanical measures were 0.12 mm/year (95% confidence interval, 0.04-0.20) for aortic diameter, 0.41 mm/year (0.12-0.71) for aortic length, 1.19 kPa/year -5.94 to 8.33) for peak circumferential stress, and 0.48 kPa/year (-3.89 to 4.84) for peak longitudinal stress. Yearly change in peak circumferential stress was significantly associated with hazard of death-hazard ratio for peak circumferential stress growth per 10 kPa/year, 1.27 (95% CI, 1.02-1.60; P = 0.037); hazard ratio for peak circumferential stress growth ≥ 32 kPa/year, 8.47 (95% CI, 2.42-30; P < 0.001).

Conclusions: In this population of nonsurgical aneurysm patients, large temporal changes in peak circumferential stress, but not aortic diameter or length, was associated with all-cause mortality. Biomechanical stress and stress changes over time may be beneficial as additional risk factors for elective surgery in small aneurysms.