Venous resection increases risk of chyle leak after total pancreatectomy for pancreatic tumors.

Background: Existing research on chyle leak (CL) after pancreatic surgery is mostly focused on pancreaticoduodenectomy and lacks investigation on total pancreatectomy (TP). This study aimed to explore potential risk factors of CL and develop a predictive model for patients with pancreatic tumor undergoing TP.

Methods: This retrospective study enrolled 90 consecutive patients undergoing TP from January 2015 to December 2023 at Peking Union Medical College Hospital. According to the inclusion criteria, 79 patients were finally included in the following analysis. The LASSO regression and multivariate logistic regression analysis were performed to identify risk factors associated with CL and construct a predictive nomogram. Then, the ROC analysis, calibration curve, decision curve analysis (DCA), and clinical impact curve (CIC) were performed to assess its discrimination, accuracy, and efficacy. Due to the small sample size, we adopted the bootstrap resampling method with 500 repetitions for validation. Lastly, we plotted and analyzed the trend of postoperative drainage volume in CL patients.

Results: We revealed that venous resection (OR = 4.352, 95%CI 1.404-14.04, P = 0.011) was an independent risk factor for CL after TP. Prolonged operation time (OR = 1.473, 95%CI 1.015-2.237, P = 0.052) was also associated with an increased incidence of CL. We included these two factors in our prediction model. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.752 (95%CI 0.622-0.874) after bootstrap. The calibration curve, DCA and CIC showed great accuracy and clinical benefit of our nomogram. In patients with CL, the mean drainage volume was significantly higher in venous resection group and grade B CL group.

Conclusion: Venous resection was an independent risk factor for chyle leak after TP. Patients undergoing vascular resection during TP should be alert for the occurrence of CL after surgery. We then constructed a nomogram consisted of venous resection and operation time to predict the odds of CL in patients undergoing TP.