How the risk principle reduces recidivism: The impact of legislative revisions on the release and reoffense rates of individuals convicted of sexual offenses.

Objective: The present study examined the relationship between legislative revisions regarding sexual offenses and the release decisions and recidivism rates of individuals convicted of sexual offenses. In 2008, the Austrian government passed a package of revised criminal laws aiming to decrease incarceration rates. At the same time, connecting recidivism risk to professional risk management efforts was expected to increase public safety.

Hypotheses: Given the strong empirical background of the implemented risk assessment and management efforts, we expected both an increase in the percentage of conditional release decisions and a decrease in recidivism rates.

Method: We analyzed the data of 2,610 male individuals convicted of sexual offenses who were released from the Austrian Prison System between 2001 and 2016 within a natural experiment using a prospective-longitudinal quasi-experimental study design.

Results: The results indicated that the percentage of conditional releases of individuals convicted of sexual offenses increased substantially since 2008. Additionally, within the same period, the recidivism rates of individuals convicted of sexual offenses decreased further.

Conclusion: Even if both developmental processes are only correlational and a causal relationship cannot be examined, the present results supported the empirical evidence of the risk principle-at least if it is based on scientifically sound risk assessment and management methods. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).