Estimating the Burden and Distribution of Post-COVID-19 Condition in Washington State, March 2020-October 2023.

Introduction: After SARS-CoV-2 infection, some people will experience long-term sequelae known as post-COVID-19 condition (PCC). Although PCC is recognized as a public health problem, estimates of the prevalence of PCC are sparse. We described a framework for estimating the incidence and prevalence of PCC by population subgroups and geography over time in Washington State.

Methods: We collected data on reported COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations and estimated SARS-CoV-2 infections in Washington State from March 2020 through October 2023. The reported case data were incorporated with parameter estimates from published articles and prevalence estimates from the Household Pulse Survey into a mathematical compartmental model of PCC progression. The model used differential equations to describe how the population of people with PCC moved through the model's various stages. This framework allowed us to integrate data on age group, sex, race and ethnicity, vaccination status, and county to estimate incidence and prevalence of PCC for each subgroup.

Results: Our model indicated that 6.4% (95% CI, 5.9%-6.8%) of all adults in Washington State were experiencing PCC as of October 2023. In addition to temporal differences in PCC prevalence and incidence, we found substantial differences across age groups, race and ethnicity, and sex. Geographic heterogeneity was pronounced, with the highest rates of PCC in central and eastern Washington.

Conclusion: Estimation of PCC prevalence is essential for addressing PCC as a public health problem. Responding to PCC will require continued surveillance, research, and dedicated financial and public health action. This analysis, accounting for heterogeneities, highlights disparities in the prevalence, incidence, and distribution of PCC in Washington State and can better guide awareness and response efforts.