Resurgence of Clinical Malaria in Ethiopia in the Era of Anopheles stephensi Invasion.

Background: The invasion of Anopheles stephensi into Africa poses a potential threat to malaria control and elimination on the continent. However, it is not clear if the recent malaria resurgence in Ethiopia has linked to the expansion of An. stephensi. We aimed to summarize the major achievements and lesson learnt in malaria control in Ethiopia from 2001 to 2022, to assess the new challenges and prospects for the control of An. stephensi.

Methods and findings: We obtained the clinical malaria case reports, antimalarial drug treatment records, insecticide-treated and long-lasting insecticidal net (ITN/LLIN) distribution and utilization records, and indoor residual spraying (IRS) coverage data from the Ethiopian Ministry of Health (MoH) for the period 2001-2022. We analyzed clinical malaria hotspots using spatially optimized hotspot analysis. We investigated malaria outbreaks in 2022 and examined the potential role of An. stephensi in the outbreaks.Clinical malaria cases in Ethiopia decreased by 80%, from 5.2 million cases (11% confirmed) in 2004 to 1.0 million cases (92% confirmed) in 2018; however, cases increased steadily to 2.6 million confirmed cases (98% confirmed) in 2022. Plasmodium vivax cases and proportion have increased significantly in the past 5 years. Clinical malaria hotspots are concentrated along the western Ethiopian border areas and have grown significantly from 2017 to 2022. Major malaria outbreaks in 2022/23 were detected in multiple sites across Ethiopia, and An. stephensi was the predominant vector in some of these sites, however, it was absence from many of the outbreak sites.

Conclusions: The malaria burden has been significantly reduced in Ethiopia in the past two decades, but in recent years it has increased substantially, and the cause of such increase is a subject of further investigation. Major gaps exist in An. stephensi research, including vector ecology, surveillance, and control tools, especially for adult mosquito control.