销售可再生能源:对三份新出版物的评论

IF 1 Q3 ECONOMICS ECONOMIC AFFAIRS Pub Date : 2024-04-30 DOI:10.1111/ecaf.12631
Lawrence Haar
{"title":"销售可再生能源:对三份新出版物的评论","authors":"Lawrence Haar","doi":"10.1111/ecaf.12631","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Anton Eberhard and Wikus Kruger (Eds.), <i>Renewable Energy Auctions: Lessons from the Global South</i>. Oxford University Press. 2023. 512 pp. £100.00 (hbk). ISBN: 978-0192871701. £66.66 (ebk). ISBN: 978-0191967931.</p><p>Pablo Del Río and Mario Ragwitz (Eds.), <i>Handbook on the Economics of Renewable Energy</i>. Edward Elgar. 2023. 496 pp. £215.00 (hbk). ISBN: 978-1800379015. From £48.00 (ebk). ISBN: 978-1800379022.</p><p>Georges Hathry, <i>Renewable Energies: The Stakes for Your Company. What does Your Company Gain from Using Renewable Energy?</i> Our Knowledge Publishing. 2023. 76 pp. $48.00 (pbk). ISBN: 978-6206326922.</p><p>In the latest COP 28 UN Climate Change Conference held in December 2023 in United Arab Emirates, signatory countries promised a transition from carbon energy sources “in a just, orderly and equitable manner” (UNFCC, <span>2023</span>) to mitigate, accordingly, the worst effects of climate change, and reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050. In the history of COP summits, though vague with respect to <i>how</i> and <i>when</i> the transition will happen, the latest UN conference set a precedent in affirming the necessity of reducing the use of fossil fuels. (Though, notably, China and India, representing more than one-third of the world's population, did not sign the pledge to triple their output of renewable energy and committed to coal power instead.)</p><p>Researchers from policy institutes, leading academic institutions and elsewhere have devoted significant effort to explaining the economic benefits transitioning to ‘renewable’ energy and pursuing the commitments made under the auspices of the UN climate change agreements. Monographs and compendiums as well offer advice on how to navigate and benefit from the transition. Some works address legal and regulatory issues such as <i>Promoting Renewable Energy: The Mutual Supportiveness of Climate and Trade Law</i> (Monti, <span>2023</span>) or focus upon technical and engineering matters as in <i>Fundamentals and Applications of Renewable Energy</i> (Kanoglu et al., <span>2023</span>).</p><p>Looking at each of these themes in turn, we begin with the popular concept of energy security.</p><p>Energy security is a recurring theme in the design of energy policy even though there is no consensus on how it should be measured or achieved, or on the relevant time frame over which it should be assessed. Ever since petroleum became critical to modern economic life, people have been concerned about whether its supply was ‘secure’ and would be fairly priced. Of late, such perennial concerns have been used to support renewable energy, but what ‘security’ precisely involves is uncertain.</p><p>There are many interesting metrics and indices purporting to measure energy security. It may involve the ratio of domestic supply to domestic consumption, looking at resource estimates or metrics related to economic structure such as producer concentration, energy intensiveness and market conditions. Distinct disciplines, as well, use different metrics. We have the accessibility perspective originating in political science; the availability perspective using geologic and scientific insights; and the affordability perspective with its roots in financial economics (Cherp &amp; Jewell, <span>2011</span>). According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), energy security signifies “the uninterrupted availability of energy sources at an affordable price”.<sup>1</sup> Questioning the validity of energy market insecurity, using historical data and the statistical insights of financial option theory, some authors have argued that petroleum markets are remarkably robust and flexible, and perform well even during ‘crises’ (Haar &amp; Haar, <span>2019</span>). Concerns over security are unwarranted and reliance upon imports is not problematic (Robinson, <span>2007</span>). As we saw recently when Russia invaded Ukraine, prices did not exceed previous highs, markets cleared without excess demand and supply.</p><p>Though there many perspectives on the concept of energy security, and concerns over it may be arguably unjustified, a common theme running through the renewable energy research and advocacy found in the publications under review is that energy markets <i>are</i> inherently insecure, but renewable energy will address this problem.<sup>2</sup> George Hathry opens his work by claiming that both companies and countries will enhance energy security through renewable energy. This claim is also made in the collection edited by Pablo Del Río and Mario Ragwitz (p. 3.) Similarly, in the work edited and authored by Anton Eberhard and Wikus Kruger various authors claim that only through private investment in renewable energy can the energy insecurity of the nations of the Global South be addressed (p. 2.). Further, it is argued that Brazil can address insecurity in electricity supply through renewable energy (p. 290), even though it has 16,172,000 million cubic feet (mmcf) of gas reserves and produces 3.3 million barrels per day (mmbd) of oil; or that Namibia can address its insecurity of electricity supply through displacing imported electricity from South Africa or imported petroleum or natural gas with renewable energy (p. 405) even though Angola, its northern neighbour has 9,711,000 mmcf of gas reserves and produces 1.4 mmbd of oil. Further, in 2021 the Canadian firm Reconnaissance Africa discovered in Namibia 120 billion barrels of oil in the Kango basin. Argentina has 11,142,000 mmcf of natural gas and produces over half a million barrels of oil per day (mmbd) while Brazil has 16,172,000 mmcf of gas reserves and produces 3.3 mmbd of oil.</p><p>The premise of the proposition that renewable energy is a means of addressing supply insecurity is dubious: most countries are net importers of petroleum, as it is critical to energy and the petrochemical sectors of modern economies, and the global 100 mmbd market is remarkably flexible. Though the purpose of sanctions against Russia was to reduce its revenues from petroleum, with the unintended consequences that its discounted Urals crude went east while Europe found new sources, the events attest to the depth and liquidity of the market. The countries of the Global South that Eberhard and Kruger focus on have bountiful access and supplies of hydrocarbons. International energy markets are not ‘insecure’ as renewable energy advocates claim; and replacing low-cost imported energy or domestically produced hydrocarbons with expensive renewable energy, as explained below, conflicts with the received economic theory of trade. That energy may be imported does not make it ‘insecure’, and replacing it through renewable energy may not be economic.<sup>3</sup> Although a scenario in which China stops exporting solar PV panels appears remote, we should remember that generating electricity in this manner, like relying upon wind turbines, involves international trade in energy intensive, globally sourced materials.<sup>4</sup></p><p>Not surprisingly, in all three works we find the theme that transitioning to renewable energy will help the environment by reducing GHG. Georges Hathry begins with this message, as do Pablo Del Río and Mario Ragwitz, whose introductory chapter tells us that satisfying the Paris Agreement of 2015 and achieving sustainable development goals requires transformation of our global energy production and consumption system. In Eberhard and Kruger's collection, the role of the Global South in reducing GHG is a recurring theme. In the eight countries examined – Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Mexico, India, South Africa, Zambia, and Namibia – the respective authors, as area experts, explain how private investment and market mechanisms may be used to reduce CO<sub>2</sub> emissions, demonstrating commitment to the various COP objectives. Excluding India from the examined countries in the Eberhard and Kruger collection, the CO<sub>2</sub> emissions of the other seven countries sum to less than 4.5 per cent of global CO<sub>2</sub>.<sup>5</sup> Even the United Kingdom, with the sixth-largest GDP, contributes only 1 per cent to global CO<sub>2</sub>. Though it may appear meritorious to act locally while imagining a global impact, the facts are not supportive. Arguably, the alternative to ‘free riding’ should be global cooperation.</p><p>For countries of the Global South covered in Eberhard and Kruger's work, investing in renewable energy will have no measurable impact upon atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> or prevent climate change. If the incentives and subsidies being offered to developing countries to adopt renewable technologies in general were instead directed to the world's most-emitting sectors, there would be greater CO<sub>2</sub> reduction at a lower cost. A global agreement on the taxation of CO<sub>2</sub> might be one approach (Shackleton, <span>2020</span>), and, in contrast to technology-specific incentives, taxing carbon ensures that firms and sectors with the lowest costs of abatement act first. In contrast, offering incentives for renewable energy, grid-level battery storage or carbon sequestration involves governments picking winners – Hayek's ‘pretence of knowledge’. Moreover, disaggregating the effects of policies from general economic trends is challenging and assumption-intensive (Moutinho et al., <span>2015</span>). Perhaps these authors should recall the observation of the late Professor Milton Friedman: “One of the great mistakes is to judge policies and programs by their intentions rather than their results.”<sup>6</sup> Apart from achieving COP objectives, the economic case for investing in renewable energy in the Global South remains questionable especially given its minuscule contribution to global CO<sub>2</sub>. Even in Europe, <i>independently</i> pursuing COP objectives may appear environmentally virtuous, but is devoid of economic common sense. Altogether, it echoes Marx's mantra: ‘From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs.’</p><p>From pre-industrial times to the 1950s, global levels of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> hovered around 300 parts per million or 0.03 per cent of the atmosphere. It has now grown to around 400 parts per million or 0.04 per cent of the atmosphere. Though CO<sub>2</sub>, as a by-product of the chemical reaction known as combustion, was never a concern until it was associated with climate change, the replacement of technologies using fossil fuels with renewable energy technologies is commonly portrayed as a ‘win-win’, that is, the costs of climate change are averted, and it is better and cheaper than fossil fuels. In all three works, in both presumptions and overt claims, it is argued that the cost of energy will be reduced through reliance upon solar PV and wind-turbine generated electricity. Hathry makes this claim in his chapter 3. Eberhard and Kruger's collection tells us that the reliance upon market mechanisms has facilitated investment and provided cost-efficient electricity tariffs for the provision of clean, renewably generated electricity. According to the authors in the Eberhard and Kruger collection, the criterion for successful implementation of renewable energy is that an independent power project is built and achieves ‘commercial’ operation in a timely manner <i>and</i> offers a low, competitive price of electricity, critically defined using the metric of the IEA and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). The indirect ‘ancillary’ costs of providing system balancing and backup as well as network costs are mentioned along with their inevitable ‘socialisation’, that is, the impact upon consumers, but not considered in depth. According to the various contributors, renewable energy is successful if the agreed tariff price is similar to or slightly below the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of the relevant technology, that is, wind turbines or solar.<sup>7</sup> But does this criterion measure ensure economic merit?</p><p>Properly, the use of this criterion ensures only that the prices received by investors–developers of renewable energy reflect <i>their</i> respective costs including an adequate return to capital; it does not imply that such a price will be cheaper, the same as, or more expensive than other forms of electricity generation, like dispatchable fossil-fuel plants or nuclear (US EIA, <span>2022</span>). To elaborate, while renewable energy is often presented as competitive with fossil-fuel-fired electricity generation, this assertion confuses price per installed megawatt with price per megawatt hour, as determined through the aforementioned LCOE calculation. Remember, though its ‘fuel’ is free, the significant capital requirements are not. Moreover, even in sunny Africa or Brazil, solar PV does not work at night. In most parts of the world, on-shore wind operates approximately one-quarter of the time and off-shore wind about a third of the time. For heuristic purposes, if we assume a weighted capacity average of 25 per cent, we might imagine that constructing four times capacity would yield nearly the same output of one gas-fired turbine normally operating at a typical load factor of 90 per cent. The observation, however, assumes zero correlation between the four sites. Weather patterns are not uncorrelated, requiring instead that one might need a sixfold investment in wind or solar renewable capacity to generate as much electricity as a single gas turbine of the same megawatts. So, while the price of installed capacity has fallen for renewable technology, an LCOE-type calculation of dividing the cost of capacity by the number of hours to reach an average cost, shows that renewable energy is <i>not</i> cheap. Even with Pigouvian-style taxation of CO<sub>2</sub> and other effluents, if it were technologically superior to dispatchable plant like combined-cycle gas turbines and ultra-supercritical coal, debating how it should be supported would be a moot issue.</p><p>Comparing LCOE of various forms of generation, however, does not tell the whole story of their respective merits. Though the authors of the Eberhard and Kruger collection acknowledge the indirect costs of renewable energy investment and that such costs may be ‘socialised’ (that is, paid for by consumers), the matter is given limited attention. It cannot be ignored, however. In the Del Río and Ragwitz collection, such topics are explored in depth. In chapter 2, titled ‘The Costs and Benefits of the Energy Transition’, by Barbara Breitschopf, Julia Panny and Anne Held, we have a detailed analysis and explanation of why renewable energy has huge indirect costs. Further, in chapter 8, titled ‘The Grid Costs of Renewable Energy Deployment’, by Joan Batalla-Bejerano, Daniel Davi-Arderius and Elisa Trujillo-Baute, we find a detailed explanation and analysis of the infrastructure needed to make renewable energy generation workable. We learn that, as a highly distributed form of electricity generation, it requires vast investment in transmission cables estimated to cost for overhead lines approximately £600,000 per kilometre, ignoring life-cycle costs. Further, it requires fossil-fuel plants idling at minimum stable generation to be dispatchable when the wind-generated output fails and the sun does not shine. In the UK, according to the energy regulator Ofgem, the non-wholesale cost component of retail energy prices now exceeds 71 per cent.<sup>8</sup></p><p>The costs of random intermittency associated with renewable technologies cannot be overestimated. Argentina has 2,534 hours per year of sunshine; 71 per cent of the time it is either night or under cloud cover. India has 2,361; 73 per cent of the time it is either night or under cloud cover. Even in Zambia, 68 per cent of the time cloud and nightfall may render solar PV infrastructure useless. Though it may be observed that in parts of Africa and India renewable energy will be a primary source of electricity without grid-level backup, making it cheaper, it is still hard to imagine anyone being satisfied with an intermittent and unpredictable supply. While in Argentina, South Africa and Brazil consumers living in urbanised areas expect reliable supply, renewable energy <i>will</i> require fossil-fuel backup or massive investment in grid-level storage, both of which impose huge social costs.<sup>9</sup></p><p>Turning to Europe, it has been estimated that providing dispatchable backup to intermittent renewable energy is costing tens of billions of euros per annum (Haar &amp; Haar, <span>2017</span>). According to recently published data by the IEA at the University of Cologne, Germany faces a €60 billion funding gap in its support for renewable energy and will need to spend about €10 billion of that on new gas-fired and hydrogen backup plants when low wind speeds or clouds keep windmills and solar panels from contributing to the grid. Further, for Germany, the social costs of reaching net zero by 2030 are estimated to reach €1.9 trillion, or €240 billion per year.<sup>10</sup></p><p>To summarise, only one of the three publications provides realistic insights into what transitioning to renewable generation of electricity will cost. ‘Socialisation’ of indirect costs may sound inoffensive, but when one quantifies the facts the case for using renewables to decarbonise electricity generation is undermined, especially in the lower- and middle-income countries of the Global South. From a democratic governance perspective, one wonders how citizens of the Global South would respond if they were canvassed on the trade-offs in transitioning to renewable energy. As we have witnessed in the world's most advanced economies, since the Industrial Revolution economic growth has been supported through inexpensive fossil fuels. Viewed comprehensively, the cost of energy will not be reduced through reliance upon solar PV and wind-turbine-generated electricity, and reliance upon it in developing countries will not make them richer. If it were economic to generate electricity using renewable technology rather than natural gas, petroleum or coal, it would not need policy advocacy; businesses do not require incentives to pursue profits.</p><p>Reflecting the widespread transition to the privatisation of electricity generation from state-owned utilities and the use of market forces to deliver reliable and affordable electricity, in all three works reviewed a large role is accorded to private investors and capital in achieving the transition to wind and solar renewable-electricity generation. Hathry targets private entities and addresses how renewable energy projects may be undertaken at firm level. He discusses how to measure energy consumption and the potential savings from renewable energy. Unsurprisingly, the public relations benefits of using and generating renewable energy are also emphasised. A case study in Hathry's work of the major French conglomerate the Bollore Group demonstrates the alleged benefits in this regard.</p><p>Lacking, however, in Hathry's work are the larger financial-economic as well as macro insights. It may look good to customers for a firm to signal its virtue of being conscientiously green, but how could higher energy prices really be good for stakeholders if it increases costs? The ultimate incidence must impact consumers, shareholders and employees. Further, we have the burden of the indirect costs of renewably generated electricity, as already explained. In most cases firms are receiving tax credits, subsidies, and other inducements to use or adopt renewable energy. Such incentives have a cost: a subsidy for one entity means higher taxes for another entity. Such incentives may have misallocative effects, directing capital in a suboptimal manner. Commenting upon the upcoming Davos Meeting, the President and CEO of Huntsman Corporation, a publicly traded petrochemical manufacturer, said “the pursuit of green energy is leading to the rapid de-industrialisation of Europe” (Huntsman, <span>2024</span>). The German think tank Agora Energiewende (<span>2024</span>) reported that the fall in Europe's CO<sub>2</sub> output is primarily due to deindustrialisation. Promoting one's green credentials might yield positive public perceptions, but the costs lead to economic stagnation. Major European car makers have already voiced concerns that the battery-powered vehicle will be the death of the domestic car industry (Fairless, <span>2024</span>). In addition, Hathry's perspective ignores the impact upon consumers. Higher prices for domestic energy and transportation reduce the purchasing power of consumers, which cannot be good for businesses. Discretionary consumer purchases such as clothing, hospitality, entertainment have been affected by higher energy prices. In the UK thousands of pubs have shut their doors, blaming the cost of heating (Cobham, <span>2024</span>).</p><p>Taking a general equilibrium perspective, apart from the direct beneficiaries of renewable energy investments such as investors earning low-risk subsidised returns, through altering relative prices from their natural opportunity cost and directing capital to where it would not go without incentives, the promotion of renewable energy must have a net negative impact to a country. Even arguments with respect to job creation through renewable energy require major qualifications (Stanef-Puica et al., <span>2022</span>). Chapter 7 in the Del Río and Ragwitz collection (‘Green Jobs in the Spanish Renewable Energy Sector: An Input-Output Approach’ by Manuel Tomás, Ignacio Cazcarro, Julen Montilla, Cristina Pizarro-Irizar and Iñaki Arto) shows the challenges of measuring the employment impact of renewable energy programmes. Simple mantras claiming that supporting renewable energy will create ‘green jobs’ are not useful. Like many targeted government programmes, identifying the cohort of beneficiaries is easier than showing the widespread negative impact upon contributors and payers. Cynically, such benefits are transitory while the costs, like deindustrialisation and impoverishment, are persistent, difficult to measure and beyond the election cycle.</p><p>Though Hathry's observations are of a general nature, the focus of the many authors in the Eberhard and Kruger collection is on how the use of energy auctions may encourage private investors in renewable energy, particularly in the nations of the Global South. Covering Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Mexico, India, South Africa, Zambia and Namibia, the respective authors, as area experts, provide detailed and well-explained information on the design, implementation, and outcomes of renewable energy auctions in each of these important locations. Each country-specific chapter provides a mixture of facts, casual empiricism and contextual information on the structure and performance of the existing power generation sector. The detailed information is generously supported by excellent graphs, tables and other exhibits, giving the reader useful insights into how each of these countries sought to address inadequate electricity supply through reliance upon market mechanisms and private capital. The information supplied and observations made do not demonstrate the economic rationality of these investment programmes.</p><p>From this work, we learn that renewable energy auctions have become the main approach to contracting utility-scale renewable energy projects. The recent history of auction markets in Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa, and India are appraised and analysed with the aim of improving how they are designed and implemented globally. In each country the focus is on policy choices including how the auction was implemented, what institutions were involved and how the procurement process was undertaken. After decades of reliance upon state-owned or parastatal entities, for all these countries turning to the private sector to supply electricity and relying upon a market mechanism to set the price was a watershed. As a natural monopoly suitable for either public ownership or regulated private ownership, there was a history of antipathy to using the private sector to supply electricity and a market mechanism to set prices. As we learn from Eberhard and Kruger's collection, in some countries private investment focusing upon renewable energy was intended to address chronic load-shedding and deficient performance of the established state-owned monopoly. In India, we discover that the auction process initially was complicated by the autonomy of India's state authorities, but eventually the ambitions to reduce the cost of renewable energy, to attract investors and have projects completed in a timely manner were successful. Facilitating India's programme was the socialisation of direct and indirect system support cost; rather than imposing such costs upon developers, a ‘plug-and-play’ option for developers: government agencies provided land and transmission connection.</p><p>In some countries, conditions were already favourable to using private capital and auctions to facilitate renewable energy development; in other countries, new laws, regulations and institution were required. In Chile, we learn that the combination of a positive business climate, low country risk, low non-payment rates and a supportive regulatory system helped to protect revenue streams to suppliers. With advanced capital markets and economic sophistication, successful auctions of the right to build and generate renewable electricity in South Africa should have been straightforward, but attracting private sector investment faced several obstacles. Though South Africa had been the regional leader in renewable energy auctions, establishing the Independent Power Producer Programme in late 2010 to address chronic power shortages as well as demonstrating commitment to UN Climate Change Conference (COP 15), its site selection process was cumbersome and costly for unsuccessful bidders. Further, its compliance programme was complicated while bidder ranking and winner selection was insufficiently transparent, discouraging investors from future rounds.</p><p>In countries such as Brazil and Mexico, major structural reforms of the electricity sector, including vertical unbundling of supply from transmission and distribution, were needed to provide suitable and attractive conditions for private investors. In Mexico, an energy regulator was created along with a market operator, and the state-owned utility was segmented into independent entities overseeing various parts of the value chain. In Argentina, the long history of economic instability and institutional fragility presented obstacles necessitating the creation of trust fund by the World Bank to mitigate financial risk to investors. It was successful in facilitating auctions until the crash of 2018 proved it was insufficient to protect investors from sovereign risk. In Namibia, starting from a complete absence of private sector involvement in electricity supply as of 2015, tangible progress was made using innovative financial structures developed by the Standard Bank to lend in the local currency, shielding investors from foreign exchange-rate risk. In neighbouring Zambia, an innovative approach to auction design was used to mitigate key risks and build trust among potential investors. In sum, from the collection we learn that renewable energy auctions have become the dominant method for contracting utility-scale renewable energy projects, in large part due to the ‘cost-efficient’ tariffs secured through this method. Relying upon private capital and market mechanisms, progress in renewable energy by the countries of the Global South has been remarkable, but does this tell the entire story?</p><p>While these countries have used a market mechanism to encourage renewable energy investment and relied upon the private sector to build renewable generation, often using the LCOE for renewables as a benchmark for setting prices of renewables, this does not necessarily demonstrate sound economics. The authors in the Eberhard and Kruger collection avoid the salient issue of whether promoting renewable energy, even using market mechanisms, favours prosperity, growth and development. In seeking guidance from this publication, policymakers should reflect carefully. Though encouraging investment in renewable energy through auctions supports achieving COP 15 objectives, the authors in the Eberhard and Kruger collection ignore the issue of whether it supports long-term economic growth and development in their respective economies. Does it build wealth or just encourage rent-seeking? In addition to gas-fired generation being cheaper when considered comprehensively, the geography and geology of these countries makes one wonder why they should pursue renewable energy, if not for achieving UN sustainable development goals or finding favour with NGOs. Argentina, as mentioned, has huge exploitable natural gas and oil reserves. So does Brazil.<sup>11</sup> Mexico produces over 1.7 mmbd of oil and ranks just ahead of Brazil in having 16,549,000 mmcf of gas reserves. Angola, the northern neighbour of Namibia, has 9,711,000 mmcf of gas reserves and produces 1.4 mmbd of oil. Though Zambia has a tiny oil and gas industry, its neighbour Mozambique is estimated to have 100 million mmcf of gas reserves, ranking 14th in the world. Altogether, the plentiful supply of hydrocarbons suitable for gas-fired electricity generation, either within or available from neighbouring countries, raises the question of whether unreliable distributed generation of electricity makes sense. The LCOE <i>may</i> be comparable, but it still requires massive investment in transmission and distribution infrastructure as well as dispatchable backup. For long-term economic growth, would renewable energy in the countries of the Global South, or anywhere for that matter, make sense if we were not concerned with the impact of using fossil fuels to generate electricity?</p><p>While all the authors in Eberhard and Kruger's collection acknowledge that renewable energy has ancillary and network costs, they all seem complacent about the above concerns. Yes, according to Deason (<span>2018</span>) in a meta-analysis of 45 peer-reviewed studies on the impact of renewable energy, 34 found that full reliance upon renewable energy would increase electricity prices between 41 per cent and 104 per cent. More broadly, according to Alex Epstein (<span>2021</span>), replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy will condemn much of the developing world to eternal poverty. Apart from achieving COP objectives, the economic case for pursuing renewable energy in the Global South remains questionable especially given its minuscule contribution to global CO<sub>2</sub>. Perhaps reflecting the level of governance and democracy, the various governments covered by Eberhard and Kruger appear committed to increasing renewable energy output without regard for the costs imposed on consumers of electricity and the long-term implications for economic growth. This also raises the question of how well the citizens of Europe and North America appreciate the negative impact of eliminating fossil fuels from electricity generation.</p><p>Reflecting the commitments to the COP/renewable energy agenda, researchers from policy institutes, leading academic institutions and elsewhere have devoted great effort to explaining the economic benefits of transitioning to ‘renewable’ energy and pursuing the commitments made under the auspices of the UN climate change agreements. The three works reviewed here offer detailed insights and advice on how the transition may be facilitated. Intended for policymakers and academics, the two edited collections are by far the most rigorous, with the one edited by Pablo Del Río and Mario Ragwitz the most balanced, offering detailed insights into the costs of transforming how we generate electricity as well as such key topics as employment creation. The collection edited by the University of Cape Town professors Anton Eberhard and Wikus Kruger provides detailed insights into how various countries of the Global South have used market mechanisms and private capital to engender renewable investment. Notwithstanding the use of market mechanisms, whether such policies and programmes are beneficial, offering sound economics, is given limited emphasis. The shorter work of Georges Hathry has a different audience: the business executive wishing to know more about renewable energy and why his or her firm should become engaged. It is uncritical and limited in its outlook, but the case studies are interesting, providing guidance on how and why one should proceed. In sum, short of a technological breakthrough like sustainable fusion energy, these works show that the devotion to renewable energy may require more faith than rationality. Perhaps we should recall the words of the Spanish poet Miguel de Unamuno: ‘Faith which does not doubt is dead faith.’</p>","PeriodicalId":44825,"journal":{"name":"ECONOMIC AFFAIRS","volume":"44 2","pages":"403-413"},"PeriodicalIF":1.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecaf.12631","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Selling renewable energy: A review of three new publications\",\"authors\":\"Lawrence Haar\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/ecaf.12631\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>Anton Eberhard and Wikus Kruger (Eds.), <i>Renewable Energy Auctions: Lessons from the Global South</i>. Oxford University Press. 2023. 512 pp. £100.00 (hbk). ISBN: 978-0192871701. £66.66 (ebk). ISBN: 978-0191967931.</p><p>Pablo Del Río and Mario Ragwitz (Eds.), <i>Handbook on the Economics of Renewable Energy</i>. Edward Elgar. 2023. 496 pp. £215.00 (hbk). ISBN: 978-1800379015. From £48.00 (ebk). ISBN: 978-1800379022.</p><p>Georges Hathry, <i>Renewable Energies: The Stakes for Your Company. What does Your Company Gain from Using Renewable Energy?</i> Our Knowledge Publishing. 2023. 76 pp. $48.00 (pbk). ISBN: 978-6206326922.</p><p>In the latest COP 28 UN Climate Change Conference held in December 2023 in United Arab Emirates, signatory countries promised a transition from carbon energy sources “in a just, orderly and equitable manner” (UNFCC, <span>2023</span>) to mitigate, accordingly, the worst effects of climate change, and reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050. In the history of COP summits, though vague with respect to <i>how</i> and <i>when</i> the transition will happen, the latest UN conference set a precedent in affirming the necessity of reducing the use of fossil fuels. (Though, notably, China and India, representing more than one-third of the world's population, did not sign the pledge to triple their output of renewable energy and committed to coal power instead.)</p><p>Researchers from policy institutes, leading academic institutions and elsewhere have devoted significant effort to explaining the economic benefits transitioning to ‘renewable’ energy and pursuing the commitments made under the auspices of the UN climate change agreements. Monographs and compendiums as well offer advice on how to navigate and benefit from the transition. Some works address legal and regulatory issues such as <i>Promoting Renewable Energy: The Mutual Supportiveness of Climate and Trade Law</i> (Monti, <span>2023</span>) or focus upon technical and engineering matters as in <i>Fundamentals and Applications of Renewable Energy</i> (Kanoglu et al., <span>2023</span>).</p><p>Looking at each of these themes in turn, we begin with the popular concept of energy security.</p><p>Energy security is a recurring theme in the design of energy policy even though there is no consensus on how it should be measured or achieved, or on the relevant time frame over which it should be assessed. Ever since petroleum became critical to modern economic life, people have been concerned about whether its supply was ‘secure’ and would be fairly priced. Of late, such perennial concerns have been used to support renewable energy, but what ‘security’ precisely involves is uncertain.</p><p>There are many interesting metrics and indices purporting to measure energy security. It may involve the ratio of domestic supply to domestic consumption, looking at resource estimates or metrics related to economic structure such as producer concentration, energy intensiveness and market conditions. Distinct disciplines, as well, use different metrics. We have the accessibility perspective originating in political science; the availability perspective using geologic and scientific insights; and the affordability perspective with its roots in financial economics (Cherp &amp; Jewell, <span>2011</span>). According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), energy security signifies “the uninterrupted availability of energy sources at an affordable price”.<sup>1</sup> Questioning the validity of energy market insecurity, using historical data and the statistical insights of financial option theory, some authors have argued that petroleum markets are remarkably robust and flexible, and perform well even during ‘crises’ (Haar &amp; Haar, <span>2019</span>). Concerns over security are unwarranted and reliance upon imports is not problematic (Robinson, <span>2007</span>). As we saw recently when Russia invaded Ukraine, prices did not exceed previous highs, markets cleared without excess demand and supply.</p><p>Though there many perspectives on the concept of energy security, and concerns over it may be arguably unjustified, a common theme running through the renewable energy research and advocacy found in the publications under review is that energy markets <i>are</i> inherently insecure, but renewable energy will address this problem.<sup>2</sup> George Hathry opens his work by claiming that both companies and countries will enhance energy security through renewable energy. This claim is also made in the collection edited by Pablo Del Río and Mario Ragwitz (p. 3.) Similarly, in the work edited and authored by Anton Eberhard and Wikus Kruger various authors claim that only through private investment in renewable energy can the energy insecurity of the nations of the Global South be addressed (p. 2.). Further, it is argued that Brazil can address insecurity in electricity supply through renewable energy (p. 290), even though it has 16,172,000 million cubic feet (mmcf) of gas reserves and produces 3.3 million barrels per day (mmbd) of oil; or that Namibia can address its insecurity of electricity supply through displacing imported electricity from South Africa or imported petroleum or natural gas with renewable energy (p. 405) even though Angola, its northern neighbour has 9,711,000 mmcf of gas reserves and produces 1.4 mmbd of oil. Further, in 2021 the Canadian firm Reconnaissance Africa discovered in Namibia 120 billion barrels of oil in the Kango basin. Argentina has 11,142,000 mmcf of natural gas and produces over half a million barrels of oil per day (mmbd) while Brazil has 16,172,000 mmcf of gas reserves and produces 3.3 mmbd of oil.</p><p>The premise of the proposition that renewable energy is a means of addressing supply insecurity is dubious: most countries are net importers of petroleum, as it is critical to energy and the petrochemical sectors of modern economies, and the global 100 mmbd market is remarkably flexible. Though the purpose of sanctions against Russia was to reduce its revenues from petroleum, with the unintended consequences that its discounted Urals crude went east while Europe found new sources, the events attest to the depth and liquidity of the market. The countries of the Global South that Eberhard and Kruger focus on have bountiful access and supplies of hydrocarbons. International energy markets are not ‘insecure’ as renewable energy advocates claim; and replacing low-cost imported energy or domestically produced hydrocarbons with expensive renewable energy, as explained below, conflicts with the received economic theory of trade. That energy may be imported does not make it ‘insecure’, and replacing it through renewable energy may not be economic.<sup>3</sup> Although a scenario in which China stops exporting solar PV panels appears remote, we should remember that generating electricity in this manner, like relying upon wind turbines, involves international trade in energy intensive, globally sourced materials.<sup>4</sup></p><p>Not surprisingly, in all three works we find the theme that transitioning to renewable energy will help the environment by reducing GHG. Georges Hathry begins with this message, as do Pablo Del Río and Mario Ragwitz, whose introductory chapter tells us that satisfying the Paris Agreement of 2015 and achieving sustainable development goals requires transformation of our global energy production and consumption system. In Eberhard and Kruger's collection, the role of the Global South in reducing GHG is a recurring theme. In the eight countries examined – Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Mexico, India, South Africa, Zambia, and Namibia – the respective authors, as area experts, explain how private investment and market mechanisms may be used to reduce CO<sub>2</sub> emissions, demonstrating commitment to the various COP objectives. Excluding India from the examined countries in the Eberhard and Kruger collection, the CO<sub>2</sub> emissions of the other seven countries sum to less than 4.5 per cent of global CO<sub>2</sub>.<sup>5</sup> Even the United Kingdom, with the sixth-largest GDP, contributes only 1 per cent to global CO<sub>2</sub>. Though it may appear meritorious to act locally while imagining a global impact, the facts are not supportive. Arguably, the alternative to ‘free riding’ should be global cooperation.</p><p>For countries of the Global South covered in Eberhard and Kruger's work, investing in renewable energy will have no measurable impact upon atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> or prevent climate change. If the incentives and subsidies being offered to developing countries to adopt renewable technologies in general were instead directed to the world's most-emitting sectors, there would be greater CO<sub>2</sub> reduction at a lower cost. A global agreement on the taxation of CO<sub>2</sub> might be one approach (Shackleton, <span>2020</span>), and, in contrast to technology-specific incentives, taxing carbon ensures that firms and sectors with the lowest costs of abatement act first. In contrast, offering incentives for renewable energy, grid-level battery storage or carbon sequestration involves governments picking winners – Hayek's ‘pretence of knowledge’. Moreover, disaggregating the effects of policies from general economic trends is challenging and assumption-intensive (Moutinho et al., <span>2015</span>). Perhaps these authors should recall the observation of the late Professor Milton Friedman: “One of the great mistakes is to judge policies and programs by their intentions rather than their results.”<sup>6</sup> Apart from achieving COP objectives, the economic case for investing in renewable energy in the Global South remains questionable especially given its minuscule contribution to global CO<sub>2</sub>. Even in Europe, <i>independently</i> pursuing COP objectives may appear environmentally virtuous, but is devoid of economic common sense. Altogether, it echoes Marx's mantra: ‘From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs.’</p><p>From pre-industrial times to the 1950s, global levels of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> hovered around 300 parts per million or 0.03 per cent of the atmosphere. It has now grown to around 400 parts per million or 0.04 per cent of the atmosphere. Though CO<sub>2</sub>, as a by-product of the chemical reaction known as combustion, was never a concern until it was associated with climate change, the replacement of technologies using fossil fuels with renewable energy technologies is commonly portrayed as a ‘win-win’, that is, the costs of climate change are averted, and it is better and cheaper than fossil fuels. In all three works, in both presumptions and overt claims, it is argued that the cost of energy will be reduced through reliance upon solar PV and wind-turbine generated electricity. Hathry makes this claim in his chapter 3. Eberhard and Kruger's collection tells us that the reliance upon market mechanisms has facilitated investment and provided cost-efficient electricity tariffs for the provision of clean, renewably generated electricity. According to the authors in the Eberhard and Kruger collection, the criterion for successful implementation of renewable energy is that an independent power project is built and achieves ‘commercial’ operation in a timely manner <i>and</i> offers a low, competitive price of electricity, critically defined using the metric of the IEA and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). The indirect ‘ancillary’ costs of providing system balancing and backup as well as network costs are mentioned along with their inevitable ‘socialisation’, that is, the impact upon consumers, but not considered in depth. According to the various contributors, renewable energy is successful if the agreed tariff price is similar to or slightly below the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of the relevant technology, that is, wind turbines or solar.<sup>7</sup> But does this criterion measure ensure economic merit?</p><p>Properly, the use of this criterion ensures only that the prices received by investors–developers of renewable energy reflect <i>their</i> respective costs including an adequate return to capital; it does not imply that such a price will be cheaper, the same as, or more expensive than other forms of electricity generation, like dispatchable fossil-fuel plants or nuclear (US EIA, <span>2022</span>). To elaborate, while renewable energy is often presented as competitive with fossil-fuel-fired electricity generation, this assertion confuses price per installed megawatt with price per megawatt hour, as determined through the aforementioned LCOE calculation. Remember, though its ‘fuel’ is free, the significant capital requirements are not. Moreover, even in sunny Africa or Brazil, solar PV does not work at night. In most parts of the world, on-shore wind operates approximately one-quarter of the time and off-shore wind about a third of the time. For heuristic purposes, if we assume a weighted capacity average of 25 per cent, we might imagine that constructing four times capacity would yield nearly the same output of one gas-fired turbine normally operating at a typical load factor of 90 per cent. The observation, however, assumes zero correlation between the four sites. Weather patterns are not uncorrelated, requiring instead that one might need a sixfold investment in wind or solar renewable capacity to generate as much electricity as a single gas turbine of the same megawatts. So, while the price of installed capacity has fallen for renewable technology, an LCOE-type calculation of dividing the cost of capacity by the number of hours to reach an average cost, shows that renewable energy is <i>not</i> cheap. Even with Pigouvian-style taxation of CO<sub>2</sub> and other effluents, if it were technologically superior to dispatchable plant like combined-cycle gas turbines and ultra-supercritical coal, debating how it should be supported would be a moot issue.</p><p>Comparing LCOE of various forms of generation, however, does not tell the whole story of their respective merits. Though the authors of the Eberhard and Kruger collection acknowledge the indirect costs of renewable energy investment and that such costs may be ‘socialised’ (that is, paid for by consumers), the matter is given limited attention. It cannot be ignored, however. In the Del Río and Ragwitz collection, such topics are explored in depth. In chapter 2, titled ‘The Costs and Benefits of the Energy Transition’, by Barbara Breitschopf, Julia Panny and Anne Held, we have a detailed analysis and explanation of why renewable energy has huge indirect costs. Further, in chapter 8, titled ‘The Grid Costs of Renewable Energy Deployment’, by Joan Batalla-Bejerano, Daniel Davi-Arderius and Elisa Trujillo-Baute, we find a detailed explanation and analysis of the infrastructure needed to make renewable energy generation workable. We learn that, as a highly distributed form of electricity generation, it requires vast investment in transmission cables estimated to cost for overhead lines approximately £600,000 per kilometre, ignoring life-cycle costs. Further, it requires fossil-fuel plants idling at minimum stable generation to be dispatchable when the wind-generated output fails and the sun does not shine. In the UK, according to the energy regulator Ofgem, the non-wholesale cost component of retail energy prices now exceeds 71 per cent.<sup>8</sup></p><p>The costs of random intermittency associated with renewable technologies cannot be overestimated. Argentina has 2,534 hours per year of sunshine; 71 per cent of the time it is either night or under cloud cover. India has 2,361; 73 per cent of the time it is either night or under cloud cover. Even in Zambia, 68 per cent of the time cloud and nightfall may render solar PV infrastructure useless. Though it may be observed that in parts of Africa and India renewable energy will be a primary source of electricity without grid-level backup, making it cheaper, it is still hard to imagine anyone being satisfied with an intermittent and unpredictable supply. While in Argentina, South Africa and Brazil consumers living in urbanised areas expect reliable supply, renewable energy <i>will</i> require fossil-fuel backup or massive investment in grid-level storage, both of which impose huge social costs.<sup>9</sup></p><p>Turning to Europe, it has been estimated that providing dispatchable backup to intermittent renewable energy is costing tens of billions of euros per annum (Haar &amp; Haar, <span>2017</span>). According to recently published data by the IEA at the University of Cologne, Germany faces a €60 billion funding gap in its support for renewable energy and will need to spend about €10 billion of that on new gas-fired and hydrogen backup plants when low wind speeds or clouds keep windmills and solar panels from contributing to the grid. Further, for Germany, the social costs of reaching net zero by 2030 are estimated to reach €1.9 trillion, or €240 billion per year.<sup>10</sup></p><p>To summarise, only one of the three publications provides realistic insights into what transitioning to renewable generation of electricity will cost. ‘Socialisation’ of indirect costs may sound inoffensive, but when one quantifies the facts the case for using renewables to decarbonise electricity generation is undermined, especially in the lower- and middle-income countries of the Global South. From a democratic governance perspective, one wonders how citizens of the Global South would respond if they were canvassed on the trade-offs in transitioning to renewable energy. As we have witnessed in the world's most advanced economies, since the Industrial Revolution economic growth has been supported through inexpensive fossil fuels. Viewed comprehensively, the cost of energy will not be reduced through reliance upon solar PV and wind-turbine-generated electricity, and reliance upon it in developing countries will not make them richer. If it were economic to generate electricity using renewable technology rather than natural gas, petroleum or coal, it would not need policy advocacy; businesses do not require incentives to pursue profits.</p><p>Reflecting the widespread transition to the privatisation of electricity generation from state-owned utilities and the use of market forces to deliver reliable and affordable electricity, in all three works reviewed a large role is accorded to private investors and capital in achieving the transition to wind and solar renewable-electricity generation. Hathry targets private entities and addresses how renewable energy projects may be undertaken at firm level. He discusses how to measure energy consumption and the potential savings from renewable energy. Unsurprisingly, the public relations benefits of using and generating renewable energy are also emphasised. A case study in Hathry's work of the major French conglomerate the Bollore Group demonstrates the alleged benefits in this regard.</p><p>Lacking, however, in Hathry's work are the larger financial-economic as well as macro insights. It may look good to customers for a firm to signal its virtue of being conscientiously green, but how could higher energy prices really be good for stakeholders if it increases costs? The ultimate incidence must impact consumers, shareholders and employees. Further, we have the burden of the indirect costs of renewably generated electricity, as already explained. In most cases firms are receiving tax credits, subsidies, and other inducements to use or adopt renewable energy. Such incentives have a cost: a subsidy for one entity means higher taxes for another entity. Such incentives may have misallocative effects, directing capital in a suboptimal manner. Commenting upon the upcoming Davos Meeting, the President and CEO of Huntsman Corporation, a publicly traded petrochemical manufacturer, said “the pursuit of green energy is leading to the rapid de-industrialisation of Europe” (Huntsman, <span>2024</span>). The German think tank Agora Energiewende (<span>2024</span>) reported that the fall in Europe's CO<sub>2</sub> output is primarily due to deindustrialisation. Promoting one's green credentials might yield positive public perceptions, but the costs lead to economic stagnation. Major European car makers have already voiced concerns that the battery-powered vehicle will be the death of the domestic car industry (Fairless, <span>2024</span>). In addition, Hathry's perspective ignores the impact upon consumers. Higher prices for domestic energy and transportation reduce the purchasing power of consumers, which cannot be good for businesses. Discretionary consumer purchases such as clothing, hospitality, entertainment have been affected by higher energy prices. In the UK thousands of pubs have shut their doors, blaming the cost of heating (Cobham, <span>2024</span>).</p><p>Taking a general equilibrium perspective, apart from the direct beneficiaries of renewable energy investments such as investors earning low-risk subsidised returns, through altering relative prices from their natural opportunity cost and directing capital to where it would not go without incentives, the promotion of renewable energy must have a net negative impact to a country. Even arguments with respect to job creation through renewable energy require major qualifications (Stanef-Puica et al., <span>2022</span>). Chapter 7 in the Del Río and Ragwitz collection (‘Green Jobs in the Spanish Renewable Energy Sector: An Input-Output Approach’ by Manuel Tomás, Ignacio Cazcarro, Julen Montilla, Cristina Pizarro-Irizar and Iñaki Arto) shows the challenges of measuring the employment impact of renewable energy programmes. Simple mantras claiming that supporting renewable energy will create ‘green jobs’ are not useful. Like many targeted government programmes, identifying the cohort of beneficiaries is easier than showing the widespread negative impact upon contributors and payers. Cynically, such benefits are transitory while the costs, like deindustrialisation and impoverishment, are persistent, difficult to measure and beyond the election cycle.</p><p>Though Hathry's observations are of a general nature, the focus of the many authors in the Eberhard and Kruger collection is on how the use of energy auctions may encourage private investors in renewable energy, particularly in the nations of the Global South. Covering Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Mexico, India, South Africa, Zambia and Namibia, the respective authors, as area experts, provide detailed and well-explained information on the design, implementation, and outcomes of renewable energy auctions in each of these important locations. Each country-specific chapter provides a mixture of facts, casual empiricism and contextual information on the structure and performance of the existing power generation sector. The detailed information is generously supported by excellent graphs, tables and other exhibits, giving the reader useful insights into how each of these countries sought to address inadequate electricity supply through reliance upon market mechanisms and private capital. The information supplied and observations made do not demonstrate the economic rationality of these investment programmes.</p><p>From this work, we learn that renewable energy auctions have become the main approach to contracting utility-scale renewable energy projects. The recent history of auction markets in Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa, and India are appraised and analysed with the aim of improving how they are designed and implemented globally. In each country the focus is on policy choices including how the auction was implemented, what institutions were involved and how the procurement process was undertaken. After decades of reliance upon state-owned or parastatal entities, for all these countries turning to the private sector to supply electricity and relying upon a market mechanism to set the price was a watershed. As a natural monopoly suitable for either public ownership or regulated private ownership, there was a history of antipathy to using the private sector to supply electricity and a market mechanism to set prices. As we learn from Eberhard and Kruger's collection, in some countries private investment focusing upon renewable energy was intended to address chronic load-shedding and deficient performance of the established state-owned monopoly. In India, we discover that the auction process initially was complicated by the autonomy of India's state authorities, but eventually the ambitions to reduce the cost of renewable energy, to attract investors and have projects completed in a timely manner were successful. Facilitating India's programme was the socialisation of direct and indirect system support cost; rather than imposing such costs upon developers, a ‘plug-and-play’ option for developers: government agencies provided land and transmission connection.</p><p>In some countries, conditions were already favourable to using private capital and auctions to facilitate renewable energy development; in other countries, new laws, regulations and institution were required. In Chile, we learn that the combination of a positive business climate, low country risk, low non-payment rates and a supportive regulatory system helped to protect revenue streams to suppliers. With advanced capital markets and economic sophistication, successful auctions of the right to build and generate renewable electricity in South Africa should have been straightforward, but attracting private sector investment faced several obstacles. Though South Africa had been the regional leader in renewable energy auctions, establishing the Independent Power Producer Programme in late 2010 to address chronic power shortages as well as demonstrating commitment to UN Climate Change Conference (COP 15), its site selection process was cumbersome and costly for unsuccessful bidders. Further, its compliance programme was complicated while bidder ranking and winner selection was insufficiently transparent, discouraging investors from future rounds.</p><p>In countries such as Brazil and Mexico, major structural reforms of the electricity sector, including vertical unbundling of supply from transmission and distribution, were needed to provide suitable and attractive conditions for private investors. In Mexico, an energy regulator was created along with a market operator, and the state-owned utility was segmented into independent entities overseeing various parts of the value chain. In Argentina, the long history of economic instability and institutional fragility presented obstacles necessitating the creation of trust fund by the World Bank to mitigate financial risk to investors. It was successful in facilitating auctions until the crash of 2018 proved it was insufficient to protect investors from sovereign risk. In Namibia, starting from a complete absence of private sector involvement in electricity supply as of 2015, tangible progress was made using innovative financial structures developed by the Standard Bank to lend in the local currency, shielding investors from foreign exchange-rate risk. In neighbouring Zambia, an innovative approach to auction design was used to mitigate key risks and build trust among potential investors. In sum, from the collection we learn that renewable energy auctions have become the dominant method for contracting utility-scale renewable energy projects, in large part due to the ‘cost-efficient’ tariffs secured through this method. Relying upon private capital and market mechanisms, progress in renewable energy by the countries of the Global South has been remarkable, but does this tell the entire story?</p><p>While these countries have used a market mechanism to encourage renewable energy investment and relied upon the private sector to build renewable generation, often using the LCOE for renewables as a benchmark for setting prices of renewables, this does not necessarily demonstrate sound economics. The authors in the Eberhard and Kruger collection avoid the salient issue of whether promoting renewable energy, even using market mechanisms, favours prosperity, growth and development. In seeking guidance from this publication, policymakers should reflect carefully. Though encouraging investment in renewable energy through auctions supports achieving COP 15 objectives, the authors in the Eberhard and Kruger collection ignore the issue of whether it supports long-term economic growth and development in their respective economies. Does it build wealth or just encourage rent-seeking? In addition to gas-fired generation being cheaper when considered comprehensively, the geography and geology of these countries makes one wonder why they should pursue renewable energy, if not for achieving UN sustainable development goals or finding favour with NGOs. Argentina, as mentioned, has huge exploitable natural gas and oil reserves. So does Brazil.<sup>11</sup> Mexico produces over 1.7 mmbd of oil and ranks just ahead of Brazil in having 16,549,000 mmcf of gas reserves. Angola, the northern neighbour of Namibia, has 9,711,000 mmcf of gas reserves and produces 1.4 mmbd of oil. Though Zambia has a tiny oil and gas industry, its neighbour Mozambique is estimated to have 100 million mmcf of gas reserves, ranking 14th in the world. Altogether, the plentiful supply of hydrocarbons suitable for gas-fired electricity generation, either within or available from neighbouring countries, raises the question of whether unreliable distributed generation of electricity makes sense. The LCOE <i>may</i> be comparable, but it still requires massive investment in transmission and distribution infrastructure as well as dispatchable backup. For long-term economic growth, would renewable energy in the countries of the Global South, or anywhere for that matter, make sense if we were not concerned with the impact of using fossil fuels to generate electricity?</p><p>While all the authors in Eberhard and Kruger's collection acknowledge that renewable energy has ancillary and network costs, they all seem complacent about the above concerns. Yes, according to Deason (<span>2018</span>) in a meta-analysis of 45 peer-reviewed studies on the impact of renewable energy, 34 found that full reliance upon renewable energy would increase electricity prices between 41 per cent and 104 per cent. More broadly, according to Alex Epstein (<span>2021</span>), replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy will condemn much of the developing world to eternal poverty. Apart from achieving COP objectives, the economic case for pursuing renewable energy in the Global South remains questionable especially given its minuscule contribution to global CO<sub>2</sub>. Perhaps reflecting the level of governance and democracy, the various governments covered by Eberhard and Kruger appear committed to increasing renewable energy output without regard for the costs imposed on consumers of electricity and the long-term implications for economic growth. This also raises the question of how well the citizens of Europe and North America appreciate the negative impact of eliminating fossil fuels from electricity generation.</p><p>Reflecting the commitments to the COP/renewable energy agenda, researchers from policy institutes, leading academic institutions and elsewhere have devoted great effort to explaining the economic benefits of transitioning to ‘renewable’ energy and pursuing the commitments made under the auspices of the UN climate change agreements. The three works reviewed here offer detailed insights and advice on how the transition may be facilitated. Intended for policymakers and academics, the two edited collections are by far the most rigorous, with the one edited by Pablo Del Río and Mario Ragwitz the most balanced, offering detailed insights into the costs of transforming how we generate electricity as well as such key topics as employment creation. The collection edited by the University of Cape Town professors Anton Eberhard and Wikus Kruger provides detailed insights into how various countries of the Global South have used market mechanisms and private capital to engender renewable investment. Notwithstanding the use of market mechanisms, whether such policies and programmes are beneficial, offering sound economics, is given limited emphasis. The shorter work of Georges Hathry has a different audience: the business executive wishing to know more about renewable energy and why his or her firm should become engaged. It is uncritical and limited in its outlook, but the case studies are interesting, providing guidance on how and why one should proceed. In sum, short of a technological breakthrough like sustainable fusion energy, these works show that the devotion to renewable energy may require more faith than rationality. Perhaps we should recall the words of the Spanish poet Miguel de Unamuno: ‘Faith which does not doubt is dead faith.’</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":44825,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"ECONOMIC AFFAIRS\",\"volume\":\"44 2\",\"pages\":\"403-413\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-04-30\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ecaf.12631\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"ECONOMIC AFFAIRS\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"91\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ecaf.12631\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"ECONOMIC AFFAIRS","FirstCategoryId":"91","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ecaf.12631","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
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摘要

此外,它还要求化石燃料发电厂以最低稳定发电量空转,以便在风力发电输出失效和阳光不充足时进行调度。在英国,根据能源监管机构 Ofgem 的数据,零售能源价格中的非批发成本部分现已超过 71%。阿根廷每年的日照时数为 2,534 小时,其中 71% 的时间不是在夜间就是在云层中。印度的日照时数为 2,361 小时,其中 73% 的时间不是在夜间就是在云层覆盖之下。即使在赞比亚,也有 68% 的时间云雾和夜幕降临会使太阳能光伏基础设施失去作用。尽管可以看到,在非洲和印度的部分地区,可再生能源将成为没有电网备用的主要电力来源,从而使其成本更低,但仍然很难想象有人会对间歇性和不可预测的电力供应感到满意。在阿根廷、南非和巴西,生活在城市化地区的消费者期待可靠的电力供应,而可再生能源则需要化石燃料备用或大量投资于电网级储能,这两者都会带来巨大的社会成本。根据科隆大学国际能源机构(IEA)最近公布的数据,德国在支持可再生能源方面面临 600 亿欧元的资金缺口,当风速过低或云层阻挡风车和太阳能电池板向电网供电时,德国需要将其中约 100 亿欧元用于新建燃气和氢气备用发电厂。此外,就德国而言,到 2030 年实现净零排放的社会成本估计将达到 1.9 万亿欧元,即每年 2,400 亿欧元10。间接成本的 "社会化 "听起来可能并不令人讨厌,但当我们将事实量化时,使用可再生能源发电来降低碳排放的理由就会被削弱,尤其是在全球南部的中低收入国家。从民主治理的角度来看,我们不禁要问,如果向全球南方国家的公民征询他们对过渡到可再生能源的利弊得失的看法,他们会做出怎样的回应。正如我们在世界上最发达的经济体中所看到的那样,自工业革命以来,经济增长一直靠廉价的化石燃料来支撑。综合来看,依靠太阳能光伏发电和风力涡轮机发电不会降低能源成本,发展中国家依靠这些发电也不会使其更加富裕。如果利用可再生技术而不是天然气、石油或煤炭发电是经济的,那么就不需要政策倡导;企业追求利润也不需要激励措施。这反映了发电行业从国有公用事业向私有化的广泛转型,以及利用市场力量提供可靠、可负担得起的电力,在这三部被评述的著作中,私人投资者和资本在实现向风能和太阳能可再生能源发电转型方面发挥了重要作用。Hathry 以私营实体为目标,探讨了如何在公司层面开展可再生能源项目。他讨论了如何衡量能源消耗以及可再生能源可能带来的节约。不难看出,他还强调了使用和生产可再生能源的公共关系效益。Hathry 对法国大型企业集团 Bollore 集团的案例研究证明了这方面的好处。对客户来说,企业自觉绿色环保可能是件好事,但如果提高能源价格会增加成本,对利益相关者又怎么会真正有利呢?最终的影响必须波及消费者、股东和员工。此外,我们还要承担可再生能源发电的间接成本,这一点已经解释过了。在大多数情况下,企业在使用或采用可再生能源时都会获得税收减免、补贴和其他奖励。这些激励措施是有成本的:对一个实体的补贴意味着对另一个实体征收更高的税。这种激励措施可能会产生错误的分配效应,以次优方式引导资本。在谈到即将召开的达沃斯会议时,上市石化制造商亨斯迈公司(Huntsman Corporation)总裁兼首席执行官说:"对绿色能源的追求正导致欧洲迅速去工业化"(Huntsman,2024 年)。德国智库 Agora Energiewende (2024) 报告称,欧洲二氧化碳排放量的下降主要是由于去工业化。 在智利,我们了解到,积极的商业环境、低国家风险、低欠款率和支持性监管制度的结合有助于保护供应商的收入流。南非拥有先进的资本市场和成熟的经济体系,成功拍卖可再生电力的建设和发电权本应是轻而易举的事,但吸引私营部门投资却面临着重重障碍。虽然南非在可再生能源拍卖方面一直处于地区领先地位,在 2010 年底制定了独立电力生产商计划,以解决长期的电力短缺问题,并表明对联合国气候变化大会(COP 15)的承诺,但其选址过程繁琐,对未中标的投标人来说成本高昂。在巴西和墨西哥等国,需要对电力部门进行重大结构改革,包括垂直拆分输电和配电供应,以便为私人投资者提供合适且有吸引力的条件。墨西哥设立了一个能源监管机构和一个市场运营商,并将国有公用事业划分为独立实体,负责监督价值链的各个环节。在阿根廷,长期的经济不稳定和机构脆弱性造成了障碍,因此世界银行有必要设立信托基金,以减轻投资者的金融风险。该基金在促进拍卖方面取得了成功,直到 2018 年的崩盘证明它不足以保护投资者免受主权风险的影响。在纳米比亚,从 2015 年私营部门完全不参与电力供应开始,利用标准银行开发的创新金融结构,以当地货币贷款,保护投资者免受外汇汇率风险,取得了切实进展。在邻国赞比亚,采用了创新的拍卖设计方法来降低主要风险,并在潜在投资者之间建立信任。总之,我们从收集的资料中了解到,可再生能源拍卖已成为公用事业规模可再生能源项目签约的主要方式,这在很大程度上是由于通过这种方式获得了 "具有成本效益 "的电价。依靠私人资本和市场机制,全球南部国家在可再生能源方面取得了显著进展,但这是否说明了问题的全部?虽然这些国家利用市场机制鼓励可再生能源投资,并依靠私营部门建设可再生能源发电,通常将可再生能源的低成本效益作为制定可再生能源价格的基准,但这并不一定说明经济学是正确的。埃伯哈德和克鲁格文集》的作者回避了一个突出的问题,即推广可再生能源,即使是利用市场机制,是否有利于繁荣、增长和发展。在从这本出版物中寻求指导时,政策制定者应该认真思考。虽然通过拍卖鼓励可再生能源投资有助于实现《公约》第 15 次缔约方会议的目标,但《埃伯哈德与克鲁格文集》的作者们却忽略了这样做是否有助于各自经济体的长期经济增长和发展这一问题。它是在创造财富,还是在鼓励寻租?除了综合考虑天然气发电成本更低之外,这些国家的地理和地质条件也让人不禁要问,如果不是为了实现联合国可持续发展目标或获得非政府组织的青睐,他们为什么要追求可再生能源?如前所述,阿根廷拥有巨大的可开采天然气和石油储量。11 墨西哥的石油产量超过 170 万立方米/日,天然气储量为 1654.9 万立方英尺,仅次于巴西。纳米比亚的北部邻国安哥拉拥有 971.1 万立方英尺的天然气储量和 140 万立方米的石油产量。虽然赞比亚的石油和天然气工业规模很小,但其邻国莫桑比克的天然气储量估计为 1 亿立方英尺,在世界上排名第 14 位。总之,适合天然气发电的丰富碳氢化合物供应,无论是在国内还是从邻国获得,都提出了不可靠的分布式发电是否合理的问题。其 LCOE 可能相当,但仍需要在输配电基础设施和可调度后备设施方面进行大量投资。对于长期经济增长而言,如果我们不考虑使用化石燃料发电所带来的影响,那么在全球南部国家或任何地方使用可再生能源是否合理? 是的,根据 Deason(2018 年)对 45 项关于可再生能源影响的同行评审研究进行的荟萃分析,34 项研究发现,完全依赖可再生能源将使电价上涨 41% 到 104%。亚历克斯-爱泼斯坦(Alex Epstein)(2021 年)认为,从更广泛的角度看,用可再生能源取代化石燃料将使大部分发展中国家陷入永久贫困。除了实现缔约方大会的目标外,在全球南部推行可再生能源的经济理由仍然值得商榷,尤其是考虑到其对全球二氧化碳排放量的贡献微乎其微。埃伯哈德和克鲁格所涉及的各国政府似乎都致力于提高可再生能源的产量,而不考虑电力消费者的成本以及对经济增长的长期影响,这或许反映了各国政府的管理水平和民主程度。这也提出了一个问题,即欧洲和北美的公民对取消化石燃料发电的负面影响有多了解。为反映对缔约方大会/可再生能源议程的承诺,政策研究所、主要学术机构和其他机构的研究人员投入了大量精力来解释向 "可再生 "能源过渡的经济效益,以及履行在联合国气候变化协议下做出的承诺。本文评述的三部著作就如何促进过渡提供了详细的见解和建议。其中,巴勃罗-德尔里奥(Pablo Del Río)和马里奥-拉格维茨(Mario Ragwitz)主编的文集最为平衡,对转变发电方式的成本以及创造就业等关键问题提供了详细的见解。开普敦大学教授安东-埃伯哈德和维库斯-克鲁格编辑的文集详细介绍了全球南部各国如何利用市场机制和私人资本吸引可再生能源投资。尽管使用了市场机制,但这些政策和计划是否有益,是否提供了合理的经济学依据,却受到了有限的重视。Georges Hathry 的短篇著作有不同的读者群:希望更多地了解可再生能源及其公司参与其中的原因的企业高管。这本书没有批判性,观点也很有限,但案例研究很有趣,为如何以及为什么要这样做提供了指导。总之,如果没有像可持续核聚变能源那样的技术突破,这些著作表明,对可再生能源的投入可能需要更多的信心,而不是理性。也许我们应该回顾一下西班牙诗人米格尔-德-乌纳穆诺的话:"不怀疑的信仰是死的信仰。
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Selling renewable energy: A review of three new publications

Anton Eberhard and Wikus Kruger (Eds.), Renewable Energy Auctions: Lessons from the Global South. Oxford University Press. 2023. 512 pp. £100.00 (hbk). ISBN: 978-0192871701. £66.66 (ebk). ISBN: 978-0191967931.

Pablo Del Río and Mario Ragwitz (Eds.), Handbook on the Economics of Renewable Energy. Edward Elgar. 2023. 496 pp. £215.00 (hbk). ISBN: 978-1800379015. From £48.00 (ebk). ISBN: 978-1800379022.

Georges Hathry, Renewable Energies: The Stakes for Your Company. What does Your Company Gain from Using Renewable Energy? Our Knowledge Publishing. 2023. 76 pp. $48.00 (pbk). ISBN: 978-6206326922.

In the latest COP 28 UN Climate Change Conference held in December 2023 in United Arab Emirates, signatory countries promised a transition from carbon energy sources “in a just, orderly and equitable manner” (UNFCC, 2023) to mitigate, accordingly, the worst effects of climate change, and reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050. In the history of COP summits, though vague with respect to how and when the transition will happen, the latest UN conference set a precedent in affirming the necessity of reducing the use of fossil fuels. (Though, notably, China and India, representing more than one-third of the world's population, did not sign the pledge to triple their output of renewable energy and committed to coal power instead.)

Researchers from policy institutes, leading academic institutions and elsewhere have devoted significant effort to explaining the economic benefits transitioning to ‘renewable’ energy and pursuing the commitments made under the auspices of the UN climate change agreements. Monographs and compendiums as well offer advice on how to navigate and benefit from the transition. Some works address legal and regulatory issues such as Promoting Renewable Energy: The Mutual Supportiveness of Climate and Trade Law (Monti, 2023) or focus upon technical and engineering matters as in Fundamentals and Applications of Renewable Energy (Kanoglu et al., 2023).

Looking at each of these themes in turn, we begin with the popular concept of energy security.

Energy security is a recurring theme in the design of energy policy even though there is no consensus on how it should be measured or achieved, or on the relevant time frame over which it should be assessed. Ever since petroleum became critical to modern economic life, people have been concerned about whether its supply was ‘secure’ and would be fairly priced. Of late, such perennial concerns have been used to support renewable energy, but what ‘security’ precisely involves is uncertain.

There are many interesting metrics and indices purporting to measure energy security. It may involve the ratio of domestic supply to domestic consumption, looking at resource estimates or metrics related to economic structure such as producer concentration, energy intensiveness and market conditions. Distinct disciplines, as well, use different metrics. We have the accessibility perspective originating in political science; the availability perspective using geologic and scientific insights; and the affordability perspective with its roots in financial economics (Cherp & Jewell, 2011). According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), energy security signifies “the uninterrupted availability of energy sources at an affordable price”.1 Questioning the validity of energy market insecurity, using historical data and the statistical insights of financial option theory, some authors have argued that petroleum markets are remarkably robust and flexible, and perform well even during ‘crises’ (Haar & Haar, 2019). Concerns over security are unwarranted and reliance upon imports is not problematic (Robinson, 2007). As we saw recently when Russia invaded Ukraine, prices did not exceed previous highs, markets cleared without excess demand and supply.

Though there many perspectives on the concept of energy security, and concerns over it may be arguably unjustified, a common theme running through the renewable energy research and advocacy found in the publications under review is that energy markets are inherently insecure, but renewable energy will address this problem.2 George Hathry opens his work by claiming that both companies and countries will enhance energy security through renewable energy. This claim is also made in the collection edited by Pablo Del Río and Mario Ragwitz (p. 3.) Similarly, in the work edited and authored by Anton Eberhard and Wikus Kruger various authors claim that only through private investment in renewable energy can the energy insecurity of the nations of the Global South be addressed (p. 2.). Further, it is argued that Brazil can address insecurity in electricity supply through renewable energy (p. 290), even though it has 16,172,000 million cubic feet (mmcf) of gas reserves and produces 3.3 million barrels per day (mmbd) of oil; or that Namibia can address its insecurity of electricity supply through displacing imported electricity from South Africa or imported petroleum or natural gas with renewable energy (p. 405) even though Angola, its northern neighbour has 9,711,000 mmcf of gas reserves and produces 1.4 mmbd of oil. Further, in 2021 the Canadian firm Reconnaissance Africa discovered in Namibia 120 billion barrels of oil in the Kango basin. Argentina has 11,142,000 mmcf of natural gas and produces over half a million barrels of oil per day (mmbd) while Brazil has 16,172,000 mmcf of gas reserves and produces 3.3 mmbd of oil.

The premise of the proposition that renewable energy is a means of addressing supply insecurity is dubious: most countries are net importers of petroleum, as it is critical to energy and the petrochemical sectors of modern economies, and the global 100 mmbd market is remarkably flexible. Though the purpose of sanctions against Russia was to reduce its revenues from petroleum, with the unintended consequences that its discounted Urals crude went east while Europe found new sources, the events attest to the depth and liquidity of the market. The countries of the Global South that Eberhard and Kruger focus on have bountiful access and supplies of hydrocarbons. International energy markets are not ‘insecure’ as renewable energy advocates claim; and replacing low-cost imported energy or domestically produced hydrocarbons with expensive renewable energy, as explained below, conflicts with the received economic theory of trade. That energy may be imported does not make it ‘insecure’, and replacing it through renewable energy may not be economic.3 Although a scenario in which China stops exporting solar PV panels appears remote, we should remember that generating electricity in this manner, like relying upon wind turbines, involves international trade in energy intensive, globally sourced materials.4

Not surprisingly, in all three works we find the theme that transitioning to renewable energy will help the environment by reducing GHG. Georges Hathry begins with this message, as do Pablo Del Río and Mario Ragwitz, whose introductory chapter tells us that satisfying the Paris Agreement of 2015 and achieving sustainable development goals requires transformation of our global energy production and consumption system. In Eberhard and Kruger's collection, the role of the Global South in reducing GHG is a recurring theme. In the eight countries examined – Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Mexico, India, South Africa, Zambia, and Namibia – the respective authors, as area experts, explain how private investment and market mechanisms may be used to reduce CO2 emissions, demonstrating commitment to the various COP objectives. Excluding India from the examined countries in the Eberhard and Kruger collection, the CO2 emissions of the other seven countries sum to less than 4.5 per cent of global CO2.5 Even the United Kingdom, with the sixth-largest GDP, contributes only 1 per cent to global CO2. Though it may appear meritorious to act locally while imagining a global impact, the facts are not supportive. Arguably, the alternative to ‘free riding’ should be global cooperation.

For countries of the Global South covered in Eberhard and Kruger's work, investing in renewable energy will have no measurable impact upon atmospheric CO2 or prevent climate change. If the incentives and subsidies being offered to developing countries to adopt renewable technologies in general were instead directed to the world's most-emitting sectors, there would be greater CO2 reduction at a lower cost. A global agreement on the taxation of CO2 might be one approach (Shackleton, 2020), and, in contrast to technology-specific incentives, taxing carbon ensures that firms and sectors with the lowest costs of abatement act first. In contrast, offering incentives for renewable energy, grid-level battery storage or carbon sequestration involves governments picking winners – Hayek's ‘pretence of knowledge’. Moreover, disaggregating the effects of policies from general economic trends is challenging and assumption-intensive (Moutinho et al., 2015). Perhaps these authors should recall the observation of the late Professor Milton Friedman: “One of the great mistakes is to judge policies and programs by their intentions rather than their results.”6 Apart from achieving COP objectives, the economic case for investing in renewable energy in the Global South remains questionable especially given its minuscule contribution to global CO2. Even in Europe, independently pursuing COP objectives may appear environmentally virtuous, but is devoid of economic common sense. Altogether, it echoes Marx's mantra: ‘From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs.’

From pre-industrial times to the 1950s, global levels of atmospheric CO2 hovered around 300 parts per million or 0.03 per cent of the atmosphere. It has now grown to around 400 parts per million or 0.04 per cent of the atmosphere. Though CO2, as a by-product of the chemical reaction known as combustion, was never a concern until it was associated with climate change, the replacement of technologies using fossil fuels with renewable energy technologies is commonly portrayed as a ‘win-win’, that is, the costs of climate change are averted, and it is better and cheaper than fossil fuels. In all three works, in both presumptions and overt claims, it is argued that the cost of energy will be reduced through reliance upon solar PV and wind-turbine generated electricity. Hathry makes this claim in his chapter 3. Eberhard and Kruger's collection tells us that the reliance upon market mechanisms has facilitated investment and provided cost-efficient electricity tariffs for the provision of clean, renewably generated electricity. According to the authors in the Eberhard and Kruger collection, the criterion for successful implementation of renewable energy is that an independent power project is built and achieves ‘commercial’ operation in a timely manner and offers a low, competitive price of electricity, critically defined using the metric of the IEA and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). The indirect ‘ancillary’ costs of providing system balancing and backup as well as network costs are mentioned along with their inevitable ‘socialisation’, that is, the impact upon consumers, but not considered in depth. According to the various contributors, renewable energy is successful if the agreed tariff price is similar to or slightly below the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of the relevant technology, that is, wind turbines or solar.7 But does this criterion measure ensure economic merit?

Properly, the use of this criterion ensures only that the prices received by investors–developers of renewable energy reflect their respective costs including an adequate return to capital; it does not imply that such a price will be cheaper, the same as, or more expensive than other forms of electricity generation, like dispatchable fossil-fuel plants or nuclear (US EIA, 2022). To elaborate, while renewable energy is often presented as competitive with fossil-fuel-fired electricity generation, this assertion confuses price per installed megawatt with price per megawatt hour, as determined through the aforementioned LCOE calculation. Remember, though its ‘fuel’ is free, the significant capital requirements are not. Moreover, even in sunny Africa or Brazil, solar PV does not work at night. In most parts of the world, on-shore wind operates approximately one-quarter of the time and off-shore wind about a third of the time. For heuristic purposes, if we assume a weighted capacity average of 25 per cent, we might imagine that constructing four times capacity would yield nearly the same output of one gas-fired turbine normally operating at a typical load factor of 90 per cent. The observation, however, assumes zero correlation between the four sites. Weather patterns are not uncorrelated, requiring instead that one might need a sixfold investment in wind or solar renewable capacity to generate as much electricity as a single gas turbine of the same megawatts. So, while the price of installed capacity has fallen for renewable technology, an LCOE-type calculation of dividing the cost of capacity by the number of hours to reach an average cost, shows that renewable energy is not cheap. Even with Pigouvian-style taxation of CO2 and other effluents, if it were technologically superior to dispatchable plant like combined-cycle gas turbines and ultra-supercritical coal, debating how it should be supported would be a moot issue.

Comparing LCOE of various forms of generation, however, does not tell the whole story of their respective merits. Though the authors of the Eberhard and Kruger collection acknowledge the indirect costs of renewable energy investment and that such costs may be ‘socialised’ (that is, paid for by consumers), the matter is given limited attention. It cannot be ignored, however. In the Del Río and Ragwitz collection, such topics are explored in depth. In chapter 2, titled ‘The Costs and Benefits of the Energy Transition’, by Barbara Breitschopf, Julia Panny and Anne Held, we have a detailed analysis and explanation of why renewable energy has huge indirect costs. Further, in chapter 8, titled ‘The Grid Costs of Renewable Energy Deployment’, by Joan Batalla-Bejerano, Daniel Davi-Arderius and Elisa Trujillo-Baute, we find a detailed explanation and analysis of the infrastructure needed to make renewable energy generation workable. We learn that, as a highly distributed form of electricity generation, it requires vast investment in transmission cables estimated to cost for overhead lines approximately £600,000 per kilometre, ignoring life-cycle costs. Further, it requires fossil-fuel plants idling at minimum stable generation to be dispatchable when the wind-generated output fails and the sun does not shine. In the UK, according to the energy regulator Ofgem, the non-wholesale cost component of retail energy prices now exceeds 71 per cent.8

The costs of random intermittency associated with renewable technologies cannot be overestimated. Argentina has 2,534 hours per year of sunshine; 71 per cent of the time it is either night or under cloud cover. India has 2,361; 73 per cent of the time it is either night or under cloud cover. Even in Zambia, 68 per cent of the time cloud and nightfall may render solar PV infrastructure useless. Though it may be observed that in parts of Africa and India renewable energy will be a primary source of electricity without grid-level backup, making it cheaper, it is still hard to imagine anyone being satisfied with an intermittent and unpredictable supply. While in Argentina, South Africa and Brazil consumers living in urbanised areas expect reliable supply, renewable energy will require fossil-fuel backup or massive investment in grid-level storage, both of which impose huge social costs.9

Turning to Europe, it has been estimated that providing dispatchable backup to intermittent renewable energy is costing tens of billions of euros per annum (Haar & Haar, 2017). According to recently published data by the IEA at the University of Cologne, Germany faces a €60 billion funding gap in its support for renewable energy and will need to spend about €10 billion of that on new gas-fired and hydrogen backup plants when low wind speeds or clouds keep windmills and solar panels from contributing to the grid. Further, for Germany, the social costs of reaching net zero by 2030 are estimated to reach €1.9 trillion, or €240 billion per year.10

To summarise, only one of the three publications provides realistic insights into what transitioning to renewable generation of electricity will cost. ‘Socialisation’ of indirect costs may sound inoffensive, but when one quantifies the facts the case for using renewables to decarbonise electricity generation is undermined, especially in the lower- and middle-income countries of the Global South. From a democratic governance perspective, one wonders how citizens of the Global South would respond if they were canvassed on the trade-offs in transitioning to renewable energy. As we have witnessed in the world's most advanced economies, since the Industrial Revolution economic growth has been supported through inexpensive fossil fuels. Viewed comprehensively, the cost of energy will not be reduced through reliance upon solar PV and wind-turbine-generated electricity, and reliance upon it in developing countries will not make them richer. If it were economic to generate electricity using renewable technology rather than natural gas, petroleum or coal, it would not need policy advocacy; businesses do not require incentives to pursue profits.

Reflecting the widespread transition to the privatisation of electricity generation from state-owned utilities and the use of market forces to deliver reliable and affordable electricity, in all three works reviewed a large role is accorded to private investors and capital in achieving the transition to wind and solar renewable-electricity generation. Hathry targets private entities and addresses how renewable energy projects may be undertaken at firm level. He discusses how to measure energy consumption and the potential savings from renewable energy. Unsurprisingly, the public relations benefits of using and generating renewable energy are also emphasised. A case study in Hathry's work of the major French conglomerate the Bollore Group demonstrates the alleged benefits in this regard.

Lacking, however, in Hathry's work are the larger financial-economic as well as macro insights. It may look good to customers for a firm to signal its virtue of being conscientiously green, but how could higher energy prices really be good for stakeholders if it increases costs? The ultimate incidence must impact consumers, shareholders and employees. Further, we have the burden of the indirect costs of renewably generated electricity, as already explained. In most cases firms are receiving tax credits, subsidies, and other inducements to use or adopt renewable energy. Such incentives have a cost: a subsidy for one entity means higher taxes for another entity. Such incentives may have misallocative effects, directing capital in a suboptimal manner. Commenting upon the upcoming Davos Meeting, the President and CEO of Huntsman Corporation, a publicly traded petrochemical manufacturer, said “the pursuit of green energy is leading to the rapid de-industrialisation of Europe” (Huntsman, 2024). The German think tank Agora Energiewende (2024) reported that the fall in Europe's CO2 output is primarily due to deindustrialisation. Promoting one's green credentials might yield positive public perceptions, but the costs lead to economic stagnation. Major European car makers have already voiced concerns that the battery-powered vehicle will be the death of the domestic car industry (Fairless, 2024). In addition, Hathry's perspective ignores the impact upon consumers. Higher prices for domestic energy and transportation reduce the purchasing power of consumers, which cannot be good for businesses. Discretionary consumer purchases such as clothing, hospitality, entertainment have been affected by higher energy prices. In the UK thousands of pubs have shut their doors, blaming the cost of heating (Cobham, 2024).

Taking a general equilibrium perspective, apart from the direct beneficiaries of renewable energy investments such as investors earning low-risk subsidised returns, through altering relative prices from their natural opportunity cost and directing capital to where it would not go without incentives, the promotion of renewable energy must have a net negative impact to a country. Even arguments with respect to job creation through renewable energy require major qualifications (Stanef-Puica et al., 2022). Chapter 7 in the Del Río and Ragwitz collection (‘Green Jobs in the Spanish Renewable Energy Sector: An Input-Output Approach’ by Manuel Tomás, Ignacio Cazcarro, Julen Montilla, Cristina Pizarro-Irizar and Iñaki Arto) shows the challenges of measuring the employment impact of renewable energy programmes. Simple mantras claiming that supporting renewable energy will create ‘green jobs’ are not useful. Like many targeted government programmes, identifying the cohort of beneficiaries is easier than showing the widespread negative impact upon contributors and payers. Cynically, such benefits are transitory while the costs, like deindustrialisation and impoverishment, are persistent, difficult to measure and beyond the election cycle.

Though Hathry's observations are of a general nature, the focus of the many authors in the Eberhard and Kruger collection is on how the use of energy auctions may encourage private investors in renewable energy, particularly in the nations of the Global South. Covering Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Mexico, India, South Africa, Zambia and Namibia, the respective authors, as area experts, provide detailed and well-explained information on the design, implementation, and outcomes of renewable energy auctions in each of these important locations. Each country-specific chapter provides a mixture of facts, casual empiricism and contextual information on the structure and performance of the existing power generation sector. The detailed information is generously supported by excellent graphs, tables and other exhibits, giving the reader useful insights into how each of these countries sought to address inadequate electricity supply through reliance upon market mechanisms and private capital. The information supplied and observations made do not demonstrate the economic rationality of these investment programmes.

From this work, we learn that renewable energy auctions have become the main approach to contracting utility-scale renewable energy projects. The recent history of auction markets in Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa, and India are appraised and analysed with the aim of improving how they are designed and implemented globally. In each country the focus is on policy choices including how the auction was implemented, what institutions were involved and how the procurement process was undertaken. After decades of reliance upon state-owned or parastatal entities, for all these countries turning to the private sector to supply electricity and relying upon a market mechanism to set the price was a watershed. As a natural monopoly suitable for either public ownership or regulated private ownership, there was a history of antipathy to using the private sector to supply electricity and a market mechanism to set prices. As we learn from Eberhard and Kruger's collection, in some countries private investment focusing upon renewable energy was intended to address chronic load-shedding and deficient performance of the established state-owned monopoly. In India, we discover that the auction process initially was complicated by the autonomy of India's state authorities, but eventually the ambitions to reduce the cost of renewable energy, to attract investors and have projects completed in a timely manner were successful. Facilitating India's programme was the socialisation of direct and indirect system support cost; rather than imposing such costs upon developers, a ‘plug-and-play’ option for developers: government agencies provided land and transmission connection.

In some countries, conditions were already favourable to using private capital and auctions to facilitate renewable energy development; in other countries, new laws, regulations and institution were required. In Chile, we learn that the combination of a positive business climate, low country risk, low non-payment rates and a supportive regulatory system helped to protect revenue streams to suppliers. With advanced capital markets and economic sophistication, successful auctions of the right to build and generate renewable electricity in South Africa should have been straightforward, but attracting private sector investment faced several obstacles. Though South Africa had been the regional leader in renewable energy auctions, establishing the Independent Power Producer Programme in late 2010 to address chronic power shortages as well as demonstrating commitment to UN Climate Change Conference (COP 15), its site selection process was cumbersome and costly for unsuccessful bidders. Further, its compliance programme was complicated while bidder ranking and winner selection was insufficiently transparent, discouraging investors from future rounds.

In countries such as Brazil and Mexico, major structural reforms of the electricity sector, including vertical unbundling of supply from transmission and distribution, were needed to provide suitable and attractive conditions for private investors. In Mexico, an energy regulator was created along with a market operator, and the state-owned utility was segmented into independent entities overseeing various parts of the value chain. In Argentina, the long history of economic instability and institutional fragility presented obstacles necessitating the creation of trust fund by the World Bank to mitigate financial risk to investors. It was successful in facilitating auctions until the crash of 2018 proved it was insufficient to protect investors from sovereign risk. In Namibia, starting from a complete absence of private sector involvement in electricity supply as of 2015, tangible progress was made using innovative financial structures developed by the Standard Bank to lend in the local currency, shielding investors from foreign exchange-rate risk. In neighbouring Zambia, an innovative approach to auction design was used to mitigate key risks and build trust among potential investors. In sum, from the collection we learn that renewable energy auctions have become the dominant method for contracting utility-scale renewable energy projects, in large part due to the ‘cost-efficient’ tariffs secured through this method. Relying upon private capital and market mechanisms, progress in renewable energy by the countries of the Global South has been remarkable, but does this tell the entire story?

While these countries have used a market mechanism to encourage renewable energy investment and relied upon the private sector to build renewable generation, often using the LCOE for renewables as a benchmark for setting prices of renewables, this does not necessarily demonstrate sound economics. The authors in the Eberhard and Kruger collection avoid the salient issue of whether promoting renewable energy, even using market mechanisms, favours prosperity, growth and development. In seeking guidance from this publication, policymakers should reflect carefully. Though encouraging investment in renewable energy through auctions supports achieving COP 15 objectives, the authors in the Eberhard and Kruger collection ignore the issue of whether it supports long-term economic growth and development in their respective economies. Does it build wealth or just encourage rent-seeking? In addition to gas-fired generation being cheaper when considered comprehensively, the geography and geology of these countries makes one wonder why they should pursue renewable energy, if not for achieving UN sustainable development goals or finding favour with NGOs. Argentina, as mentioned, has huge exploitable natural gas and oil reserves. So does Brazil.11 Mexico produces over 1.7 mmbd of oil and ranks just ahead of Brazil in having 16,549,000 mmcf of gas reserves. Angola, the northern neighbour of Namibia, has 9,711,000 mmcf of gas reserves and produces 1.4 mmbd of oil. Though Zambia has a tiny oil and gas industry, its neighbour Mozambique is estimated to have 100 million mmcf of gas reserves, ranking 14th in the world. Altogether, the plentiful supply of hydrocarbons suitable for gas-fired electricity generation, either within or available from neighbouring countries, raises the question of whether unreliable distributed generation of electricity makes sense. The LCOE may be comparable, but it still requires massive investment in transmission and distribution infrastructure as well as dispatchable backup. For long-term economic growth, would renewable energy in the countries of the Global South, or anywhere for that matter, make sense if we were not concerned with the impact of using fossil fuels to generate electricity?

While all the authors in Eberhard and Kruger's collection acknowledge that renewable energy has ancillary and network costs, they all seem complacent about the above concerns. Yes, according to Deason (2018) in a meta-analysis of 45 peer-reviewed studies on the impact of renewable energy, 34 found that full reliance upon renewable energy would increase electricity prices between 41 per cent and 104 per cent. More broadly, according to Alex Epstein (2021), replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy will condemn much of the developing world to eternal poverty. Apart from achieving COP objectives, the economic case for pursuing renewable energy in the Global South remains questionable especially given its minuscule contribution to global CO2. Perhaps reflecting the level of governance and democracy, the various governments covered by Eberhard and Kruger appear committed to increasing renewable energy output without regard for the costs imposed on consumers of electricity and the long-term implications for economic growth. This also raises the question of how well the citizens of Europe and North America appreciate the negative impact of eliminating fossil fuels from electricity generation.

Reflecting the commitments to the COP/renewable energy agenda, researchers from policy institutes, leading academic institutions and elsewhere have devoted great effort to explaining the economic benefits of transitioning to ‘renewable’ energy and pursuing the commitments made under the auspices of the UN climate change agreements. The three works reviewed here offer detailed insights and advice on how the transition may be facilitated. Intended for policymakers and academics, the two edited collections are by far the most rigorous, with the one edited by Pablo Del Río and Mario Ragwitz the most balanced, offering detailed insights into the costs of transforming how we generate electricity as well as such key topics as employment creation. The collection edited by the University of Cape Town professors Anton Eberhard and Wikus Kruger provides detailed insights into how various countries of the Global South have used market mechanisms and private capital to engender renewable investment. Notwithstanding the use of market mechanisms, whether such policies and programmes are beneficial, offering sound economics, is given limited emphasis. The shorter work of Georges Hathry has a different audience: the business executive wishing to know more about renewable energy and why his or her firm should become engaged. It is uncritical and limited in its outlook, but the case studies are interesting, providing guidance on how and why one should proceed. In sum, short of a technological breakthrough like sustainable fusion energy, these works show that the devotion to renewable energy may require more faith than rationality. Perhaps we should recall the words of the Spanish poet Miguel de Unamuno: ‘Faith which does not doubt is dead faith.’

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来源期刊
ECONOMIC AFFAIRS
ECONOMIC AFFAIRS ECONOMICS-
CiteScore
1.40
自引率
14.30%
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期刊介绍: Economic Affairs is a journal for those interested in the application of economic principles to practical affairs. It aims to stimulate debate on economic and social problems by asking its authors, while analysing complex issues, to make their analysis and conclusions accessible to a wide audience. Each issue has a theme on which the main articles focus, providing a succinct and up-to-date review of a particular field of applied economics. Themes in 2008 included: New Perspectives on the Economics and Politics of Ageing, Housing for the Poor: the Role of Government, The Economic Analysis of Institutions, and Healthcare: State Failure. Academics are also invited to submit additional articles on subjects related to the coverage of the journal. There is section of double blind refereed articles and a section for shorter pieces that are reviewed by our Editorial Board (Economic Viewpoints). Please contact the editor for full submission details for both sections.
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