Clustering Longitudinal Data for Growth Curve Modelling by Gibbs Sampler and Information Criterion

Clustering longitudinal data for growth curve modelling is considered in this paper, where we aim to optimally estimate the underpinning unknown group partition matrix. Instead of following the conventional soft clustering approach, which assumes the columns of the partition matrix to have i.i.d. multinomial or categorical prior distributions and uses a regression model with the response following a finite mixture distribution to estimate the posterior distribution of the partition matrix, we propose an iterative partition and regression procedure to find the best partition matrix and the associated best growth curve regression model for each identified cluster. We show that the best partition matrix is the one minimizing a recently developed empirical Bayes information criterion (eBIC), which, due to the involved combinatorial explosion, is difficult to compute via enumerating all candidate partition matrices. Thus, we develop a Gibbs sampling method to generate a Markov chain of candidate partition matrices that has its equilibrium probability distribution equal the one induced from eBIC. We further show that the best partition matrix, given a priori the number of latent clusters, can be consistently estimated and is computationally scalable based on this Markov chain. The number of latent clusters is also best estimated by minimizing eBIC. The proposed iterative clustering and regression method is assessed by a comprehensive simulation study before being applied to two real-world growth curve modelling examples involving longitudinal data clustering.