解读政治风险对工业化的影响:非洲的证据

Hervé Kaffo Fotio , Abdoul Karim
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引用次数: 0

摘要

尽管人们越来越关注政治风险的经济成本,但对其对工业化的影响却知之甚少。本文利用 2000-2019 年间 34 个非洲国家的数据,研究了政治风险对工业化的影响及其相对传导机制,从而填补了这一知识空白。Driscoll 和 Kraay(1998 年)、系统 GMM 和量子回归的研究结果表明,政治风险对工业化有直接的负面影响。在考虑政治风险的子维度时,结果显示政府风险、内部和外部冲突风险、军事政治风险、种族紧张局势风险、投资状况风险、腐败风险、官僚素质风险和社会经济风险的增加会对工业化产生不利影响。此外,中介分析表明,政治风险不仅直接影响工业化,还通过对金融一体化、金融发展和互联网渗透率的不利影响产生间接影响。最后,净影响是负面的,表明政治风险阻碍了非洲的工业化。
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Unravelling the impact of political risk on industrialization: Evidence from Africa

Despite the growing concern about the economic costs of political risk, relatively little is known about its effect on industrialization. This paper fills the knowledge gap by investigating the impact of political risk on industrialization and relative transmission mechanisms using data from 34 African countries over the 2000–2019 period. Findings from Driscoll and Kraay (1998), system GMM, and quantile regressions show that political risk has a direct negative impact on industrialization. When considering the sub-dimensions of political risk, results show that the increase in government risk, internal and external conflict risk, military politics risk, ethnic tensions risk, investment profile risk, corruption risk, bureaucratic quality risk, and socioeconomic risk adversely affect industrialization. Further, the mediation analysis reveals that political risk does not only have a direct effect on industrialization but also an indirect impact through its adverse effects on financial integration, financial development, and internet penetration. Finally, the net impact is negative and suggests that political risk hinders Africa's industrialization.

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来源期刊
International Economics
International Economics Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (all)
CiteScore
6.30
自引率
0.00%
发文量
74
审稿时长
71 days
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