Chi Li , Linhao Yu , Jianfeng Mao , Wei Cong , Zibin Pan , Yuhao Du , Lianmin Zhang
{"title":"国际航空运输网络如何影响 COVID-19 的传播?时空模型视角","authors":"Chi Li , Linhao Yu , Jianfeng Mao , Wei Cong , Zibin Pan , Yuhao Du , Lianmin Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.trc.2024.104730","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The international air transport network is pivotal in the global propagation of emerging infectious diseases. Gaining insights into the nuances of this transmission mechanism can pave the way for more strategic and effective interventions. While previous studies have delved into the subject, an integrated spatial and temporal modeling framework, specifically tailored to distinct phases of COVID-19 and its variants, has yet to be fully explored. This research aims to address this gap by exploring the spatial and temporal impacts of the air transport network on the spread of COVID-19 and its Omicron variant. We introduce an improved effective distance metric to assess the spatial correlation between various distance metrics and the onset of infectious diseases in selected nations. Subsequently, we employ a network-based heterogeneous susceptible-unreported infectious-confirmed-recovered-death (SUCRD) mathematical model to delineate the temporal evolution of infections by country. Our findings underscore the air transport network’s instrumental role in the pandemic’s spatial dynamics. Moreover, our model has been validated, demonstrating robustness and reliability. Through rigorous validation and simulation experiments, we discern the significance of the timing and intensity of interventions in shaping the pandemic’s trajectory. Notably, while the air transport network exerts a profound influence during the phases of both COVID-19 and Omicron, international travel restrictions exhibit diminishing returns once the disease achieves widespread prevalence. Through comparative analysis and discussion, we highlight the advantages of our experimental outcomes and methodological approach compared to previous studies. Based on our findings, we identify six key policy implications that offer critical perspectives for aviation stakeholders. This study illuminates the role of the air transport network in affecting the spatial accessibility and temporal dynamics of pandemic transmission, thereby providing valuable insights for informed policy-making in the aviation sector.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":54417,"journal":{"name":"Transportation Research Part C-Emerging Technologies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":7.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"How did international air transport networks influence the spread of COVID-19? A spatial and temporal modeling perspective\",\"authors\":\"Chi Li , Linhao Yu , Jianfeng Mao , Wei Cong , Zibin Pan , Yuhao Du , Lianmin Zhang\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.trc.2024.104730\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>The international air transport network is pivotal in the global propagation of emerging infectious diseases. Gaining insights into the nuances of this transmission mechanism can pave the way for more strategic and effective interventions. While previous studies have delved into the subject, an integrated spatial and temporal modeling framework, specifically tailored to distinct phases of COVID-19 and its variants, has yet to be fully explored. This research aims to address this gap by exploring the spatial and temporal impacts of the air transport network on the spread of COVID-19 and its Omicron variant. We introduce an improved effective distance metric to assess the spatial correlation between various distance metrics and the onset of infectious diseases in selected nations. Subsequently, we employ a network-based heterogeneous susceptible-unreported infectious-confirmed-recovered-death (SUCRD) mathematical model to delineate the temporal evolution of infections by country. Our findings underscore the air transport network’s instrumental role in the pandemic’s spatial dynamics. Moreover, our model has been validated, demonstrating robustness and reliability. Through rigorous validation and simulation experiments, we discern the significance of the timing and intensity of interventions in shaping the pandemic’s trajectory. Notably, while the air transport network exerts a profound influence during the phases of both COVID-19 and Omicron, international travel restrictions exhibit diminishing returns once the disease achieves widespread prevalence. Through comparative analysis and discussion, we highlight the advantages of our experimental outcomes and methodological approach compared to previous studies. Based on our findings, we identify six key policy implications that offer critical perspectives for aviation stakeholders. This study illuminates the role of the air transport network in affecting the spatial accessibility and temporal dynamics of pandemic transmission, thereby providing valuable insights for informed policy-making in the aviation sector.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":54417,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Transportation Research Part C-Emerging Technologies\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":7.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-07-03\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Transportation Research Part C-Emerging Technologies\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"5\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0968090X24002511\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"工程技术\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Transportation Research Part C-Emerging Technologies","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0968090X24002511","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
How did international air transport networks influence the spread of COVID-19? A spatial and temporal modeling perspective
The international air transport network is pivotal in the global propagation of emerging infectious diseases. Gaining insights into the nuances of this transmission mechanism can pave the way for more strategic and effective interventions. While previous studies have delved into the subject, an integrated spatial and temporal modeling framework, specifically tailored to distinct phases of COVID-19 and its variants, has yet to be fully explored. This research aims to address this gap by exploring the spatial and temporal impacts of the air transport network on the spread of COVID-19 and its Omicron variant. We introduce an improved effective distance metric to assess the spatial correlation between various distance metrics and the onset of infectious diseases in selected nations. Subsequently, we employ a network-based heterogeneous susceptible-unreported infectious-confirmed-recovered-death (SUCRD) mathematical model to delineate the temporal evolution of infections by country. Our findings underscore the air transport network’s instrumental role in the pandemic’s spatial dynamics. Moreover, our model has been validated, demonstrating robustness and reliability. Through rigorous validation and simulation experiments, we discern the significance of the timing and intensity of interventions in shaping the pandemic’s trajectory. Notably, while the air transport network exerts a profound influence during the phases of both COVID-19 and Omicron, international travel restrictions exhibit diminishing returns once the disease achieves widespread prevalence. Through comparative analysis and discussion, we highlight the advantages of our experimental outcomes and methodological approach compared to previous studies. Based on our findings, we identify six key policy implications that offer critical perspectives for aviation stakeholders. This study illuminates the role of the air transport network in affecting the spatial accessibility and temporal dynamics of pandemic transmission, thereby providing valuable insights for informed policy-making in the aviation sector.
期刊介绍:
Transportation Research: Part C (TR_C) is dedicated to showcasing high-quality, scholarly research that delves into the development, applications, and implications of transportation systems and emerging technologies. Our focus lies not solely on individual technologies, but rather on their broader implications for the planning, design, operation, control, maintenance, and rehabilitation of transportation systems, services, and components. In essence, the intellectual core of the journal revolves around the transportation aspect rather than the technology itself. We actively encourage the integration of quantitative methods from diverse fields such as operations research, control systems, complex networks, computer science, and artificial intelligence. Join us in exploring the intersection of transportation systems and emerging technologies to drive innovation and progress in the field.