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引用次数: 0
摘要
传染病风险的有效可视化对于制定高效的预防和控制战略至关重要。然而，由于缺乏目标地区的可靠数据，主流模型的有效性受到阻碍，这种情况在应对新出现或再次出现的传染病时尤为严重。此外，这些模型通常无法按照 "一体健康 "的理念整合当地与疾病相关的风险因素，导致预测不准确。因此，在没有可靠数据的情况下准确评估传染病风险具有挑战性。本研究介绍了 SpatMCDA，这是一个创新的 R 软件包，旨在通过空间多标准决策分析（MCDA）评估传染病风险区域。SpatMCDA 围绕六个核心建模步骤展开：标准化风险因素、确定因素权重、构建风险地图、执行一次性敏感性分析、计算绝对变化率平均值以及进行不确定性分析。本研究以中国西尼罗河病毒（WNV）为例，说明了 SpatMCDA 如何在缺乏可靠疫情数据的情况下有效识别疾病传播风险。评估确定了中国西北、华东和华南地区的西尼罗河病毒风险区域。通过整合空间数据和流行病学数据，SpatMCDA 可在数据有限的情况下加强传染病风险评估。它能有效利用现有数据绘制准确的风险图，并能灵活调整各种风险因素的权重，从而进行有针对性的分析。该工具可加强公共卫生战略，促进全球卫生安全。
期刊介绍：
A British Ecological Society journal, Methods in Ecology and Evolution (MEE) promotes the development of new methods in ecology and evolution, and facilitates their dissemination and uptake by the research community. MEE brings together papers from previously disparate sub-disciplines to provide a single forum for tracking methodological developments in all areas.
MEE publishes methodological papers in any area of ecology and evolution, including:
-Phylogenetic analysis
-Statistical methods
-Conservation & management
-Theoretical methods
-Practical methods, including lab and field
-This list is not exhaustive, and we welcome enquiries about possible submissions. Methods are defined in the widest terms and may be analytical, practical or conceptual.
A primary aim of the journal is to maximise the uptake of techniques by the community. We recognise that a major stumbling block in the uptake and application of new methods is the accessibility of methods. For example, users may need computer code, example applications or demonstrations of methods.
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