Prediction Model for Chronological Weight Loss After Bariatric Surgery in Korean Patients.

Purpose: This study aimed to develop a predictive model for monitoring chronological weight loss during the early postoperative period following bariatric surgery in Korean patients with morbid obesity.

Materials and methods: The baseline characteristics and postoperative weight loss outcomes were collected for up to 24 months after surgery in patients who underwent sleeve gastrectomy (SG) or Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB). The factors influencing weight loss outcomes were analyzed, and longitudinal percentile charts were plotted using quantile regression models adjusted for the identified independent factors.

Results: The analysis included 491 and 274 patients who underwent SG and RYGB, respectively, of whom 225 (29.4%) were men. A positive association was found between the maximum percentage of total weight loss (%TWL) and female sex, body mass index (BMI) ≥40, and age <40 years. Among patients who reached nadir BMI or had at least 12 months of follow-up data (n=304), 7.6% exhibited inadequate weight loss (TWL <20%). The predictors of insufficient weight loss were older age (>40 years), male sex, and psychological problems. Centile charts were generated for the entire cohort, incorporating age, sex, and the type of procedure as covariates.

Conclusion: The percentile charts proposed in the present study can assist surgeons and healthcare providers in gauging patients' progress toward their weight loss goals and determining the timing of adjunctive intervention in poor responders during early postoperative follow-up.