针对不完善疫苗和不同宿主易感性的最佳疫苗接种策略。

IF 1.9 4区 数学 Q2 BIOLOGY Journal of Theoretical Biology Pub Date : 2024-07-06 DOI:10.1016/j.jtbi.2024.111899
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引用次数: 0

摘要

我提出了一种方法,将一定数量的疫苗分配给对疾病易感性不同的人群,从而使流行病的最终规模最小。我考虑了疫苗所提供的保护的任意分布,包括泄漏疫苗和全或无疫苗的极端情况。最佳疫苗接种政策取决于保护分布。对于基本繁殖数 R0 的低值,最佳政策是优先给最易感的宿主接种疫苗,但我的研究表明,对于几乎任何分布,R0 都有一个临界值,超过这个临界值,优先顺序就会颠倒,最不易感的宿主就应该接种疫苗。这种情况不会发生的例外情况是 "全或无 "疫苗。然而,即使与理想的 "全有或全无 "分布有微小偏差,也会意味着在 R0 的实际值上,有限数量的疫苗应该接种给易感程度较低的宿主。
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Optimal vaccination strategies for imperfect vaccines and variable host susceptibility

I present a method to allocate a given number of vaccines to members of a population who differ in their susceptibility to the disease so that the final size of the epidemic is minimised. I consider an arbitrary distribution of protection that the vaccine confers, including the extreme cases of leaky and all-or-none vaccines. The optimal vaccination policy depends on the distribution of protection. While for low values of the basic reproduction number R0 the optimal policy prioritises the most susceptible hosts, I show that for almost any distribution the order of priority reverses and the least susceptible hosts should be vaccinated when R0 is high. The exception where this does not happen is the all-or-none vaccine. However, even a small deviation from the ideal all-or-none distribution can imply that the limited number of vaccines should be given to less susceptible hosts already at realistic values of R0.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.20
自引率
5.00%
发文量
218
审稿时长
51 days
期刊介绍: The Journal of Theoretical Biology is the leading forum for theoretical perspectives that give insight into biological processes. It covers a very wide range of topics and is of interest to biologists in many areas of research, including: • Brain and Neuroscience • Cancer Growth and Treatment • Cell Biology • Developmental Biology • Ecology • Evolution • Immunology, • Infectious and non-infectious Diseases, • Mathematical, Computational, Biophysical and Statistical Modeling • Microbiology, Molecular Biology, and Biochemistry • Networks and Complex Systems • Physiology • Pharmacodynamics • Animal Behavior and Game Theory Acceptable papers are those that bear significant importance on the biology per se being presented, and not on the mathematical analysis. Papers that include some data or experimental material bearing on theory will be considered, including those that contain comparative study, statistical data analysis, mathematical proof, computer simulations, experiments, field observations, or even philosophical arguments, which are all methods to support or reject theoretical ideas. However, there should be a concerted effort to make papers intelligible to biologists in the chosen field.
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