Clandestine travelers, a boon for south and a bane for north? Warming-induced shifts in global invasion potential of Argentine ants

The Argentine ant is one among the 100 worst invasive animal species of the world. It has invaded six continents, and poses significant threats to the native invertebrate fauna. Prior knowledge on the suitable ecological niches of Argentine ants may help to devise better management plans. This study delineates the niches of Argentine ants using the ecological niche modeling approach by maintaining the temporal match between the distributional information and environmental data. We used an exhaustive methodological framework to understand the niche characteristics of Argentine ants in their native and invaded ranges. The model developed using combined native and invaded range distributional information provided better habitat suitability predictions in the invaded ranges. Efforts were also made to identify the suitable niches of this invasive species globally. The current global model was projected onto two future periods (2041–2070 and 2071–2100) under two different emission scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585). Our study highlights four important features related to the ecological niches of Argentine ants: (1) large habitat preference towards permanent streams in the native ranges, (2) native ecological niche is only partly conserved across invaded ranges, (3) invaded range niches are largely differentiated, and (4) global warming induces an increase in habitat suitability in the northern hemisphere. The results of this study may provide potential insights for the effective implementation of management strategies.