预测气候变化下溪流中幼年鲑鱼热量最大值的超标情况：从实验室实验到河岸恢复的交叉路径

IF 2.8 2区生物学 Q2 ECOLOGY Freshwater Biology Pub Date : 2024-07-05 DOI:10.1111/fwb.14300

Josephine C. Iacarella, Richard Chea, David A. Patterson, J. Daniel Weller

引用次数: 0

摘要

淡水外温动物对水温上升的担忧促使人们将实验得出的热阈值应用到溪流温度模型中，以估计在当前和未来气候条件下溪流超过热阈值的高风险。我们优化了一种方法，将与实地相关的最大热量实验与相应的溪流温度模型联系起来，并确定通过河岸树木生长降低溪流温度的机会。我们对适应冷水的奇努克（Oncorhynchus tshawytscha）和库鲑（Oncorhynchus kisutch）幼鱼进行了最大热量实验，该实验通过使用具有日间波动的增量温度斜坡（IT-Dmax）来反映自然温度，并为加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省改装了一个特定地区的溪流温度模型，以便与实验室得出的阈值直接相关。根据用于管理决策的风险容忍度情景（即考虑一系列预测区间 [PIs] 和溪流对气温的热敏性），将不列颠哥伦比亚省的鲑鱼溪流按阈值超标风险（即低、中、高、严重）进行分类。通过估算河岸树木生长降低阈值超标风险的潜力，我们将这些结果与河岸管理和恢复行动直接联系起来。实验室得出的IT-Dmax终点在两种物种的不同适应处理中均为24°C（基于日最高气温的7天平均值与周平均气温之间的中值）。在当前条件下，大多数溪流河段（99.6%，采用中等风险容忍度方案）都低于热阈值；预计到本世纪末，阈值超标的中高风险溪流将从 0.4% 增加到 1.5%（溪流线性总长度为 6929 公里）。风险规避方案（高灵敏度，75% PI）和风险容忍方案（低灵敏度，95% PI）的不同之处在于，预测到本世纪末，有 1107 km 的溪流具有超过阈值的中度到重度风险。据预测，在本世纪末条件和中等风险容忍度下，河岸树木的最大生长量将使 670 公里的溪流从中度超标风险转变为低度超标风险，这显示了减轻热影响的潜力。我们的综合方法解决了确定淡水外温动物高温风险溪流的几个关键问题，这些问题迄今为止尚未得到解决。此外，我们还展示了空间综合估算的划定，该估算确定了最需要采取管理缓解措施和具体恢复活动的地方，以减少温度升高对整个地区鲑科鱼类繁殖的影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Freshwater Biology 生物-海洋与淡水生物学

CiteScore

5.90

自引率

3.70%

发文量

162

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Freshwater Biology publishes papers on all aspects of the ecology of inland waters, including rivers and lakes, ground waters, flood plains and other freshwater wetlands. We include studies of micro-organisms, algae, macrophytes, invertebrates, fish and other vertebrates, as well as those concerning whole systems and related physical and chemical aspects of the environment, provided that they have clear biological relevance. Studies may focus at any level in the ecological hierarchy from physiological ecology and animal behaviour, through population dynamics and evolutionary genetics, to community interactions, biogeography and ecosystem functioning. They may also be at any scale: from microhabitat to landscape, and continental to global. Preference is given to research, whether meta-analytical, experimental, theoretical or descriptive, highlighting causal (ecological) mechanisms from which clearly stated hypotheses are derived. Manuscripts with an experimental or conceptual flavour are particularly welcome, as are those or which integrate laboratory and field work, and studies from less well researched areas of the world. Priority is given to submissions that are likely to interest a wide range of readers. We encourage submission of papers well grounded in ecological theory that deal with issues related to the conservation and management of inland waters. Papers interpreting fundamental research in a way that makes clear its applied, strategic or socio-economic relevance are also welcome. Review articles (FRESHWATER BIOLOGY REVIEWS) and discussion papers (OPINION) are also invited: these enable authors to publish high-quality material outside the constraints of standard research papers.