Décio Alves, Fábio Mendonça, Sheikh Shanawaz Mostafa, Fernando Morgado-Dias
{"title":"语言模型的时间序列嵌入:风向预报工具","authors":"Décio Alves, Fábio Mendonça, Sheikh Shanawaz Mostafa, Fernando Morgado-Dias","doi":"10.1007/s13351-024-3151-9","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Wind direction nowcasting is crucial in various sectors, particularly for ensuring aviation operations and safety. In this context, the TELMo (Time-series Embeddings from Language Models) model, a sophisticated deep learning architecture, has been introduced in this work for enhanced wind-direction nowcasting. Developed by using three years of data from multiple stations in the complex terrain of an international airport, TELMo incorporates the horizontal <i>u</i> (east–west) and <i>v</i> (north–south) wind components to significantly reduce forecasting errors. On a day with high wind direction variability, TELMo achieved mean absolute error values of 5.66 for 2-min, 10.59 for 10-min, and 14.79 for 20-min forecasts, processed within a swift 9-ms/step timeframe. Standard degree-based analysis, in comparison, yielded lower performance, emphasizing the effectiveness of the <i>u</i> and <i>v</i> components. In contrast, a Vanilla neural network, representing a shallow-learning approach, underperformed in all analyses, highlighting the superiority of deep learning methodologies in wind direction nowcasting. TELMo is an efficient model, capable of accurately forecasting wind direction for air traffic operations, with an error less than 20° in 97.49% of the predictions, aligning with recommended international thresholds. This model design enables its applicability across various geographical locations, making it a versatile tool in global aviation meteorology.</p>","PeriodicalId":48796,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Meteorological Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Time-Series Embeddings from Language Models: A Tool for Wind Direction Nowcasting\",\"authors\":\"Décio Alves, Fábio Mendonça, Sheikh Shanawaz Mostafa, Fernando Morgado-Dias\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s13351-024-3151-9\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>Wind direction nowcasting is crucial in various sectors, particularly for ensuring aviation operations and safety. In this context, the TELMo (Time-series Embeddings from Language Models) model, a sophisticated deep learning architecture, has been introduced in this work for enhanced wind-direction nowcasting. Developed by using three years of data from multiple stations in the complex terrain of an international airport, TELMo incorporates the horizontal <i>u</i> (east–west) and <i>v</i> (north–south) wind components to significantly reduce forecasting errors. On a day with high wind direction variability, TELMo achieved mean absolute error values of 5.66 for 2-min, 10.59 for 10-min, and 14.79 for 20-min forecasts, processed within a swift 9-ms/step timeframe. Standard degree-based analysis, in comparison, yielded lower performance, emphasizing the effectiveness of the <i>u</i> and <i>v</i> components. In contrast, a Vanilla neural network, representing a shallow-learning approach, underperformed in all analyses, highlighting the superiority of deep learning methodologies in wind direction nowcasting. TELMo is an efficient model, capable of accurately forecasting wind direction for air traffic operations, with an error less than 20° in 97.49% of the predictions, aligning with recommended international thresholds. This model design enables its applicability across various geographical locations, making it a versatile tool in global aviation meteorology.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":48796,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Meteorological Research\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-07-09\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Meteorological Research\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-024-3151-9\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Meteorological Research","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-024-3151-9","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Time-Series Embeddings from Language Models: A Tool for Wind Direction Nowcasting
Wind direction nowcasting is crucial in various sectors, particularly for ensuring aviation operations and safety. In this context, the TELMo (Time-series Embeddings from Language Models) model, a sophisticated deep learning architecture, has been introduced in this work for enhanced wind-direction nowcasting. Developed by using three years of data from multiple stations in the complex terrain of an international airport, TELMo incorporates the horizontal u (east–west) and v (north–south) wind components to significantly reduce forecasting errors. On a day with high wind direction variability, TELMo achieved mean absolute error values of 5.66 for 2-min, 10.59 for 10-min, and 14.79 for 20-min forecasts, processed within a swift 9-ms/step timeframe. Standard degree-based analysis, in comparison, yielded lower performance, emphasizing the effectiveness of the u and v components. In contrast, a Vanilla neural network, representing a shallow-learning approach, underperformed in all analyses, highlighting the superiority of deep learning methodologies in wind direction nowcasting. TELMo is an efficient model, capable of accurately forecasting wind direction for air traffic operations, with an error less than 20° in 97.49% of the predictions, aligning with recommended international thresholds. This model design enables its applicability across various geographical locations, making it a versatile tool in global aviation meteorology.
期刊介绍:
Journal of Meteorological Research (previously known as Acta Meteorologica Sinica) publishes the latest achievements and developments in the field of atmospheric sciences. Coverage is broad, including topics such as pure and applied meteorology; climatology and climate change; marine meteorology; atmospheric physics and chemistry; cloud physics and weather modification; numerical weather prediction; data assimilation; atmospheric sounding and remote sensing; atmospheric environment and air pollution; radar and satellite meteorology; agricultural and forest meteorology and more.