Analysis of agricultural insurance vulnerability in the face of natural disasters: Insights from Iran

Agricultural insurance plays a crucial role in managing and mitigating damages from natural disasters, while also providing support to farmers through equitable risk distribution. This study focuses on identifying vulnerabilities of the Agricultural Insurance Fund (AIF) in Iran during natural disasters and proposing solutions for maintaining preparedness and adapting to new circumstances. Utilizing a qualitative approach, the research involved a three-stage classic Delphi technique with 24 experts in agricultural insurance which purposefully selected using snowball sampling. Three open-ended questions on AIF vulnerabilities in facing natural disasters, AIF's adaptive capacity, and forecasting strategic measures for the future, were provided in the first research round. After refining in subsequent rounds, a consensus was reached on 19 vulnerability points, 7 adaptive capacity factors, and 20 strategic actions. Key indicator of vulnerabilities includes the “weak financial capacity of the insurance fund”. “Designing an integrated agricultural insurance system” was the most crucial factor in enhancing AIF's adaptive capacity. Finally, the study proposes strategies like "strengthening financial capacity and ensuring sustainable credit resources," "developing capacities of the insurance system with location-based technologies," and "differentiating catastrophic damages in the insurance tariffing system" to address vulnerabilities and enhance agricultural insurance resilience.