尼日利亚地缘政治区的数学建模和季节性太阳辐射变化:重现和多分形分析

IF 1.8 4区 地球科学 Q3 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics Pub Date : 2024-07-05 DOI:10.1016/j.jastp.2024.106290
A.O. Adelakun , F.M. Adelakun
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文深入研究了尼日利亚四个地缘政治区太阳辐射模式的季节性变化,探索其复杂的、规模依赖性的行为。通过使用混沌量化器,该研究描述了不规则和自相似的模式,加深了我们对太阳辐射变异性和异质性的理解。该研究以独特的方式将气象参数拟合到全球太阳辐射模型中,重点关注热带地区(尤其是尼日利亚)尚未充分探索的非线性问题。利用ERA INTERIM卫星档案中代表性站点的每日数据,该研究采用了非线性时间序列分析方法,如复现图、复现定性分析和多分形谱分析,以全面探索所观察到的不可预测行为。量子频谱在揭示环境变量之间错综复杂的缩放行为和相关结构方面发挥了关键作用,揭示了往往被传统统计方法所掩盖的规律。例如,我们发现,与南部地区不同,北部地区的太阳辐射变化在旱季比雨季增加得更明显。此外,多分形光谱分析显示,在季节过渡期间,太阳辐射模式的复杂程度更高。研究结果表明,频谱的定量分析重现率低、右尾长、两端截断。这表明不同季节和地点的太阳辐射不稳定。尽管如此,研究结果也表明,太阳辐射全年持续存在,这是热带地区的典型特征。
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Mathematical modeling and seasonal solar radiation variability in Nigeria’s geo-political zones: A recurrence and multifractal analysis

This article delves into the seasonal variation of solar radiation patterns across Nigeria’s four geo-political zones, exploring their complex, scale-dependent behaviors. By employing chaotic quantifiers, the study characterizes irregular and self-similar patterns, enhancing our understanding of solar radiation variability and heterogeneity. The research uniquely fits meteorological parameters onto a global solar radiation model and focuses on the underexplored nonlinear aspects within tropical regions, specifically in the Nigerian context. Utilizing daily data from ERA INTERIM satellite archives for representative stations, the study employs nonlinear time series analysis methods like recurrence plots, recurrence qualitative analysis, and multifractal spectral analysis to comprehensively explore the unpredictable behaviors observed. The quantifier spectrums play a key role in revealing intricate scaling behaviors and correlation structures among environmental variables, shedding light on patterns often concealed by conventional statistical methods. For instance, we found that solar radiation variability in the northern region increases more significantly during the dry season compared to the wet season, unlike in the southern region. Additionally, the multifractal spectral analysis revealed a higher degree of complexity in solar radiation patterns during transition periods between seasons. The findings reveal a low recurrence quantitative analysis, long right tail, and truncations at both ends of the spectrum. This suggests instability in solar radiation across different seasons and locations. Nonetheless, the results also demonstrate that solar radiation is consistently available throughout the year, which is typical of tropical regions.

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来源期刊
Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics
Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 地学-地球化学与地球物理
CiteScore
4.10
自引率
5.30%
发文量
95
审稿时长
6 months
期刊介绍: The Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics (JASTP) is an international journal concerned with the inter-disciplinary science of the Earth''s atmospheric and space environment, especially the highly varied and highly variable physical phenomena that occur in this natural laboratory and the processes that couple them. The journal covers the physical processes operating in the troposphere, stratosphere, mesosphere, thermosphere, ionosphere, magnetosphere, the Sun, interplanetary medium, and heliosphere. Phenomena occurring in other "spheres", solar influences on climate, and supporting laboratory measurements are also considered. The journal deals especially with the coupling between the different regions. Solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and other energetic events on the Sun create interesting and important perturbations in the near-Earth space environment. The physics of such "space weather" is central to the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics and the journal welcomes papers that lead in the direction of a predictive understanding of the coupled system. Regarding the upper atmosphere, the subjects of aeronomy, geomagnetism and geoelectricity, auroral phenomena, radio wave propagation, and plasma instabilities, are examples within the broad field of solar-terrestrial physics which emphasise the energy exchange between the solar wind, the magnetospheric and ionospheric plasmas, and the neutral gas. In the lower atmosphere, topics covered range from mesoscale to global scale dynamics, to atmospheric electricity, lightning and its effects, and to anthropogenic changes.
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