Does the site, size, and number of necrotic collections affect the outcome of necrotizing pancreatitis? - a prospective analysis.

Purpose: In patients with acute necrotizing pancreatitis (ANP), the site, size, and the number of acute necrotic collections (ANC) may determine the outcome of patients. The current study aimed to correlate the nature of ANC with the adverse outcomes in ANP patients.

Methods: This was a single-center, prospective study (August 2019-August 2022) recruiting patients with ANP, correlating the site, size, and number of ANC with the length of hospital stay, intensive care unit (ICU) stays, development of organ failure and infection, need for intervention, and mortality.

Results: A total of 114 patients (mean age: 37.3 ± 13.4 years, 85.1% males) with ANP were included in the study. The number and maximum diameter of collections significantly correlated with the length of the hospital and ICU stay and the need for intervention. Taking a cut-off size of 8 cm, the sensitivity and specificity for predicting the need for intervention were 82.7% and 74.2%, respectively. ANCs located in the perinephric, paracolic, subhepatic, and epigastric regions had a significant correlation with two or more adverse outcomes. Additional points were added to the modified CT severity index (mCTSI) based on the present study's findings. The new score had significantly higher AUROC than mCTSI for predicting infection, need for intervention, ICU stay > 1 week, and mortality.

Conclusion: The site, size, and number of EPNs have a significant correlation with adverse clinical outcomes in patients with ANP. The inclusion of these parameters, along with present scoring systems, will help further improve the prognostication of patients.