Estimating the uncertainties of satellite derived soil moisture at global scale

This study attempts to derive the uncertainty of the soil moisture estimation from passive microwave satellite mission at global scale. To do so, the approach is based on the sensitivity of the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) soil moisture retrieval quality to the land surface characteristics within its footprint (presence of forest, topography, open water bodies, sand, clay, bulk density and soil organic carbon content). First, we performed a global assessment of SMOS using in situ measurements from the International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN) as reference, with more than 1900 ISMN stations and 10 years of SMOS data. This assessment shows that the ubRMSD scores vary greatly between locations (with a mean of 0.074 m³m⁻³ and an interquartile range of 0.030 m³m⁻³). Second, the scores are analyzed for different surface conditions within the satellite footprint. The best agreement between the ground measurement and SMOS time series are obtained for low forest cover, low topographic complexity, and marginal presence of open water bodies within the SMOS footprint. Soil parameters also have an impact, with better scores for sandier soils with a high bulk-density and low soil organic carbon content. Finally, we propose to extrapolate the obtained relationships, using a multiple linear regression, in order to derive a global map of SMOS uncertainties based on surface conditions. This map of predicted uncertainties show a diverse range of ubRMSD values across the globe (with a mean of 0.076 m³m⁻³ and an interquartile range of 0.031 m³m⁻³) depending on the surface characteristics. At the ISMN site location, the predicted ubRMSD shows similar results than the comparison between SMOS and the in situ measurements. The map of predicted SMOS ubRMSD represents an upper bound estimate of the SMOS uncertainty, as it includes the uncertainties of the in situ sensor measurements and the scale mismatch. Further investigations will focus on the different components of this uncertainty budget to obtain a better assessment of the absolute uncertainties of SMOS soil moisture retrievals across the globe.