{"title":"俄乌战争会导致汇率贬值吗?来自卢布汇率的证据","authors":"Haibo Jia, Hao Yun, Khalid Khan","doi":"10.1007/s10258-024-00260-x","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper aims to examine the impact of the Russian-Ukraine war on the USD/RUB rate. The outcome reveals that war has severe adverse consequences for the USD/RUB rate. It implies that the exchange rate witnessed rapid depreciation following the outbreak of war in February 2022. The findings suggest a significant deviation from the predicted value and show that the USD/RUB exchange rate consistently remained lower than would have been anticipated in the absence of the conflict. On the other hand, the regression discontinuity method supports the finding that the USD/RUB exchange rate has significantly depreciated after the war. The study indicates that war has increased uncertainty and affects exchange rates, causing a noticeable difference between predicted and actual rates. These findings highlight the significance of contingency planning, efficient disaster management, access to market information, and accurate predictive modeling.</p>","PeriodicalId":45031,"journal":{"name":"Portuguese Economic Journal","volume":"60 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Does the Russia-Ukraine war cause exchange rate depreciation? Evidence from the rouble exchange rate\",\"authors\":\"Haibo Jia, Hao Yun, Khalid Khan\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s10258-024-00260-x\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>This paper aims to examine the impact of the Russian-Ukraine war on the USD/RUB rate. The outcome reveals that war has severe adverse consequences for the USD/RUB rate. It implies that the exchange rate witnessed rapid depreciation following the outbreak of war in February 2022. The findings suggest a significant deviation from the predicted value and show that the USD/RUB exchange rate consistently remained lower than would have been anticipated in the absence of the conflict. On the other hand, the regression discontinuity method supports the finding that the USD/RUB exchange rate has significantly depreciated after the war. The study indicates that war has increased uncertainty and affects exchange rates, causing a noticeable difference between predicted and actual rates. These findings highlight the significance of contingency planning, efficient disaster management, access to market information, and accurate predictive modeling.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":45031,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Portuguese Economic Journal\",\"volume\":\"60 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-07-13\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Portuguese Economic Journal\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10258-024-00260-x\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Portuguese Economic Journal","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10258-024-00260-x","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Does the Russia-Ukraine war cause exchange rate depreciation? Evidence from the rouble exchange rate
This paper aims to examine the impact of the Russian-Ukraine war on the USD/RUB rate. The outcome reveals that war has severe adverse consequences for the USD/RUB rate. It implies that the exchange rate witnessed rapid depreciation following the outbreak of war in February 2022. The findings suggest a significant deviation from the predicted value and show that the USD/RUB exchange rate consistently remained lower than would have been anticipated in the absence of the conflict. On the other hand, the regression discontinuity method supports the finding that the USD/RUB exchange rate has significantly depreciated after the war. The study indicates that war has increased uncertainty and affects exchange rates, causing a noticeable difference between predicted and actual rates. These findings highlight the significance of contingency planning, efficient disaster management, access to market information, and accurate predictive modeling.
期刊介绍:
The Portuguese Economic Journal publishes high-quality theoretical, empirical, applied or policy-oriented research papers on any field in economics. We enforce a rigorous, fair and prompt refereeing process. The geographical reference in the name of the journal only means that the journal is an initiative of Portuguese scholars. There is no bias in favour of particular topics and issues.Officially cited as: Port Econ J