在不确定环境下使用基于决策的扩展 FMEA 模型分析智能电网太阳能集成中的故障

IF 3.9 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment Pub Date : 2024-07-14 DOI:10.1007/s00477-024-02764-6
Mohammad Reza Maghami, Sahand Vahabzadeh, Arthur Guseni Oliver Mutambara, Saeid Jafarzadeh Ghoushchi, Chandima Gomes
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引用次数: 0

摘要

太阳能与智能电网集成过程中的故障会对能源可靠性和环境可持续性产生重大影响,导致对传统能源的更大依赖和碳排放的增加。这些故障会影响系统功能、效率和长期成本节约。因此,故障分析在确定根本原因、设计适当的解决方案以及提高智能电网系统中太阳能集成的性能方面发挥着至关重要的作用。传统的故障模式和影响分析(FMEA)方法被广泛用于识别各种流程中的故障模式。然而,FMEA 中采用的风险优先级(RPN)评分系统因其局限性而饱受批评。为了克服这一挑战,我们的混合 FMEA 方法将成本和时间因素纳入 RPN 计算,从而加强了对失效因素的评估。在方法的第二步,我们利用球形模糊逐步权重评估比率分析(SF-SWARA)技术和专家见解来确定五个基本因素的权重。最后,在第三阶段,我们提出了球形模糊加权汇总产品评估(SF-WASPAS)方法,根据前几个阶段的结果确定风险的优先次序,同时考虑到决定因素的不确定性,并赋予它们不同的权重。根据 SF-WASPAS 方法,评级最高的故障是连接和网络安全,这突出了确保太阳能系统安全和可靠连接的极端重要性。此外,FMEA 结果表明,过热或火灾是最重要的风险,强调了有效防火和缓解战略的必要性。
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Failure analysis in smart grid solar integration using an extended decision-making-based FMEA model under uncertain environment

Failures in the integration of solar energy into smart grids can have significant implications for energy reliability and environmental sustainability, resulting in a greater dependence on conventional energy sources and increased carbon emissions. These failures can impact system functionality, efficiency, and long-term cost savings. Therefore, failure analysis plays a crucial role in identifying the underlying causes, devising appropriate solutions, and enhancing the performance of solar integration within smart grid systems. The conventional method of failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) is widely utilized to identify failure modes in various processes. However, the Risk Priority Number (RPN) scoring system employed in FMEA has faced criticism due to its limitations. To overcome this challenge, our hybrid FMEA approach integrates cost and time considerations into the RPN calculation, thereby enhancing the assessment of failure factors. In the second step of our methodology, we utilize the Spherical Fuzzy Step-Wise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (SF-SWARA) technique and expert insights to determine the weightage of the five underlying factors. Lastly, in the third phase, we propose the Spherical Fuzzy Weighted Aggregated Sum Product Assessment (SF-WASPAS) method to prioritize risks based on the outcomes of the previous phases, while taking into account the uncertainty in the determinants and assigning varying weights to them. According to SF-WASPAS, the highest-rated failure is connectivity and cybersecurity, underscoring the critical importance of ensuring secure and reliable connections in solar systems. Additionally, the FMEA results indicate that overheating or fire ranks as the most significant risk, emphasizing the need for effective fire prevention and mitigation strategies.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
7.10
自引率
9.50%
发文量
189
审稿时长
3.8 months
期刊介绍: Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA) will publish research papers, reviews and technical notes on stochastic and probabilistic approaches to environmental sciences and engineering, including interactions of earth and atmospheric environments with people and ecosystems. The basic idea is to bring together research papers on stochastic modelling in various fields of environmental sciences and to provide an interdisciplinary forum for the exchange of ideas, for communicating on issues that cut across disciplinary barriers, and for the dissemination of stochastic techniques used in different fields to the community of interested researchers. Original contributions will be considered dealing with modelling (theoretical and computational), measurements and instrumentation in one or more of the following topical areas: - Spatiotemporal analysis and mapping of natural processes. - Enviroinformatics. - Environmental risk assessment, reliability analysis and decision making. - Surface and subsurface hydrology and hydraulics. - Multiphase porous media domains and contaminant transport modelling. - Hazardous waste site characterization. - Stochastic turbulence and random hydrodynamic fields. - Chaotic and fractal systems. - Random waves and seafloor morphology. - Stochastic atmospheric and climate processes. - Air pollution and quality assessment research. - Modern geostatistics. - Mechanisms of pollutant formation, emission, exposure and absorption. - Physical, chemical and biological analysis of human exposure from single and multiple media and routes; control and protection. - Bioinformatics. - Probabilistic methods in ecology and population biology. - Epidemiological investigations. - Models using stochastic differential equations stochastic or partial differential equations. - Hazardous waste site characterization.
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