Future change in the contribution of riming and depositional growth to the surface solid precipitation in Hokkaido, Japan

This study examined future changes in the microphysical properties of surface solid precipitation over Hokkaido, Japan. A process-tracking model that predicts the mass of the hydrometeors generated by each cloud microphysical process was implemented in a meteorological model. This implementation aimed to analyze the mass fraction of hydrometeors resulting from depositional growth and the riming process to the total mass of surface solid precipitation. Results from pseudo-global warming experiments suggest two potential future changes in the characteristics of surface solid precipitation over Hokkaido. First, the rimed particles are expected to increase and be dominant over the west and northwest coast of Hokkaido, where heavy snowfall occurs primarily due to the lake effect. Second, the mass fraction from depositional growth under relatively higher temperatures is expected to increase. This increase is anticipated to be dominant over the eastern part and mountainous area of Hokkaido. Additionally, the fraction of liquid precipitation to total precipitation is expected to increase in the future. These results suggest that the microphysical properties of solid precipitation in Hokkaido are expected to be similar to those observed in the current climate over Hokuriku, the central part of Japan even in warmer climate conditions.