通过模型预测控制与数据同化相结合,引导洛伦兹 63 系统走向规定制度

IF 16.4 1区 化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2024-07-10 DOI:10.5194/npg-31-319-2024
Fumitoshi Kawasaki, S. Kotsuki
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引用次数: 3

摘要

摘要近来,暴雨和台风等极端天气事件的加剧和增加日益引起人们的关注。为减轻由天气引发的灾害所造成的损失,近年来的研究已开始开发天气控制技术,通过可行的操作将天气引向理想的方向。本研究建议在控制模拟实验(CSE)框架中引入模型预测控制(MPC)这一在控制工程领域探索出的先进控制方法。与以往的 CSE 研究不同的是,本研究提出的方法在 MPC 的成本函数中明确考虑了物理约束条件,如最大允许操纵量。作为将 MPC 应用于实际天气控制的第一步,本研究使用 Lorenz 63 模型进行了一系列 MPC 实验。结果表明,洛伦兹 63 系统可以通过 MPC 确定的控制输入进入正态。此外,与早期的 CSE 研究相比,MPC 大大缩短了必要的预测时间。在处理初始状态的不确定性时,选择一个对初始状态显示出更大制度转变的成员是有益的。
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Leading the Lorenz 63 system toward the prescribed regime by model predictive control coupled with data assimilation
Abstract. Recently, concerns have been growing about the intensification and increase in extreme weather events, including torrential rainfall and typhoons. For mitigating the damage caused by weather-induced disasters, recent studies have started developing weather control technologies to lead the weather to a desirable direction with feasible manipulations. This study proposes introducing the model predictive control (MPC), an advanced control method explored in control engineering, into the framework of the control simulation experiment (CSE). In contrast to previous CSE studies, the proposed method explicitly considers physical constraints, such as the maximum allowable manipulations, within the cost function of the MPC. As the first step toward applying the MPC to real weather control, this study performed a series of MPC experiments with the Lorenz 63 model. Our results showed that the Lorenz 63 system can be led to the positive regime with control inputs determined by the MPC. Furthermore, the MPC significantly reduced necessary forecast length compared to earlier CSE studies. It was beneficial to select a member that showed a larger regime shift for the initial state when dealing with uncertainty in initial states.
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来源期刊
Accounts of Chemical Research
Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合
CiteScore
31.40
自引率
1.10%
发文量
312
审稿时长
2 months
期刊介绍: Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.
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