Predicting chronic responses to calcium channel blockade with a virtual population of African Americans with hypertensive chronic kidney disease

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is associated with the progressive loss of functional nephrons and hypertension (HTN). Clinical studies demonstrate calcium channel blocker (CCB) therapy mitigates the decline in renal function in humans with essential HTN. However, there are few long-term clinical studies that determine the impact of CCBs in patients with hypertensive CKD. African Americans (AA) have a higher prevalence of CKD and a faster progression to total kidney failure as compared to the white population but the mechanisms are poorly understood. Both clinical evidence (the African American Study of Kidney Disease and Hypertension, or AASK trial) and experimental studies have demonstrated that CCB may expose glomerular capillaries to high systemic pressures and exacerbate CKD progression. Therefore, using a large physiological model, we set out to replicate the AASK trial findings, predict renal hemodynamic responses and the role of the renin-angiotensin system during CCB antihypertensive therapy in a virtual population, and hypothesize mechanisms underlying those findings. Our current mathematical model, HumMod, is comprised of integrated systems that play an integral role in long-term blood pressure (BP) control such as neural, endocrine, circulatory, and renal systems. Parameters (n = 341) that control these systems were randomly varied and resulted in 1,400 unique models that we define as a virtual population. We calibrated these models to individual patient level data from the AASK trial: BP and glomerular filtration rate (GFR) before and after 3 years of amlodipine (10 mg/day). After calibration, the new virtual population (n = 165) was associated with statistically similar BP and GFR before and after CCB. Baseline factors such as elevated single nephron GFR and low tubuloglomerular feedback were correlated with greater declines in renal function and increased glomerulosclerosis after 3 years of CCB. Blocking the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) in the virtual population decreased glomerular pressure, limited glomerular damage, and further decreased BP (−14 ± 8 mmHg) as compared to CCB alone (−11 ± 9 mmHg). Our simulations echo the potential risk of CCB monotherapy in AA CKD patients and support blockade of the renin angiotensin system as a valuable tool in renal disease treatment when combined with CCB therapy.