模拟接种疫苗对尼泊尔麻疹控制的影响

A. Pokharel, Khagendra Adhikari, Ramesh Gautam
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引用次数: 0

摘要

麻疹是一种由病毒引起的人类高度传染病。尽管已经有了成功的疫苗,但麻疹疫情仍时有发生,这可能是由于人们对疫苗接种缺乏依从性。我们开发了一个数学模型,用于评估疫苗在不同年龄结构中的效果,特别是针对控制和根除该疾病的两个群体,这可能会对规划者有所帮助。利用我们的模型,我们提出了基本繁殖数 R 0,它决定了疾病是持续还是消亡。此外,我们还进行了敏感性分析,以确定在不同人群中控制和预防麻疹中起重要作用的重要参数。此外,我们还研究了疾病的行为以及疫苗接种对疾病长期动态的影响。
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Modelling the Impact of Vaccination on the Control of Measles in Nepal
Measles is a highly contagious disease in human caused by virus. Despite the accessibility of successful vaccines, measles outbreaks still occur, presumably because of the lack of compliance with vaccination. We developed a mathematical model to evaluate the effects of vaccines in different age structures particularly focusing on two groups, to control and eradicate the disease, that may help the planner. Using our model, we formulate the basic reproduction number R 0 that determines, whether the disease persists or dies out. In addition, we carry out sensitivity analysis to identify important parameters that can play a significant role in the control and prevention of measles in different groups of individuals. Furthermore, we investigate the behavior of the disease and effect of vaccination on disease dynamics over a long period.
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