政治风险下埃及保险公司的投资回报

Aly Saad Dawood
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摘要

本研究论文旨在估算 2009-2021 年期间政治风险对埃及保险公司投资回报的影响,其中包括对不同业务领域产生影响的各种事件,以及相应地对保险公司投资回报的影响。我们发现,保险公司的投资回报受腐败控制的负面影响较大,腐败控制反映了埃及发生的不公正选举、革命和恐怖主义事件,但受监管质量和保险业务赤字/盈余的正面影响,这有力地证明了埃及法律的凝聚力及其在降低保险公司政治风险方面的重要作用。我们建议,在宏观层面上,政府应强调支持法治,这可能会减轻政治风险的负面影响;在微观层面上,我们建议公司证明其业务的合理性,特别是风险评级和再保险,以应对不同的经济和政治变化。
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Investment Return of Egyptian Insurance Firms Under Political Risks
This research paper aims to estimate the effect of political risks on Egyptian insurance companies’ investment returns over the period 2009 – 2021 which consist of a variety of events having influences on different areas of businesses and accordingly on insurance companies' investment returns. We found that insurance companies' investment returns are affected negatively, significantly by control of corruption which reflect events happened in Egypt from unjustifiable election, revolution, and terrorism but positively affected by the regulatory quality and deficit/surplus in insurance operations showing robust evidence on the cohesiveness of Egyptian laws and its significant role in reducing insurance companies’ exposure towards political risks. We recommend, on the macro-level, that the government should stress on supporting the rule of law which might mitigate the negative influence of political risks and on the micro-level, we recommend companies to justify their operations especially risk rating and reinsurance to cope with different economic and political changes.
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