非对称成本行为会影响条件保守主义实践吗?量化回归方法

,وفاء صلاح محمد, مروة حسن محمد حسان
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摘要

本研究探讨了不同活动水平下的非对称成本行为及其对预测和理解盈利模式的准确性的影响。此外,它还提供了有关盈利及时性的更多实证证据,特别侧重于新兴经济体埃及的条件保守主义。针对以往研究依赖传统普通最小二乘法回归模型的局限性,本研究采用了量子回归模型。该模型提供了一个框架,可在各种情况下检验研究假设,包括不同企业的不同成本和收益水平。样本包括 2017 年至 2022 年期间的 164 家上市公司(984 个观测值)。研究结果表明,埃及上市公司除了条件保守主义外,还普遍表现出非对称成本行为,这体现在研究期间其运营成本的粘性上。与活动水平变化较大的公司相比,活动水平变化较小的公司的非对称成本行为程度更高。即使考虑到行业和年份特定因素的影响,研究结果在统计上仍有意义。以经营应计项目作为因变量,研究结果也依然稳健。本研究通过提供实证证据,强调了理解成本行为对于准确预测和理解盈利的非对称及时性的重要性,从而为现有的财务会计文献做出了贡献。此外,本研究也是首次使用量化回归方法研究非对称成本行为与非对称盈利及时性之间的关联的研究之一。
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Does asymmetric cost behaviour impact conditional conservatism practices? A quantile regression approach
This study examines the asymmetric cost behaviour at different levels of activity, and its impact on the accuracy of predicting and understanding earnings patterns. Furthermore, it provides additional empirical evidence regarding the timeliness of earnings, specifically focusing on conditional conservatism, within the context of an emerging economy, Egypt. To address the limitations in previous studies relied on traditional ordinary least squares regression models, this study implements a quantile regression model. This model provides a framework to test the study hypotheses across various scenarios, encompassing different levels of costs and earnings for diverse firms. The sample consists of 164 publicly listed firms during the period from 2017 to 2022(984 observations). The study findings suggest that Egyptian-listed firms besides conditional conservatism commonly exhibit asymmetric cost behaviour, as evidenced by the stickiness of their operating costs during the study period. The degree of asymmetric cost behaviour is greater for firms with low changes in activity levels compared to firms with higher changes in activity levels. The study findings remain statistically significant even with accounting for the influence of industry and year-specific factors. Findings also remain robust with operating accruals be the dependent variable. This study contributes to the existing financial accounting literature by presenting empirical evidence that emphasises the significance of understanding cost behaviour for accurately predicting and understanding the asymmetric timeliness of earnings. Additionally, this study is one of the first to examine the association between asymmetric cost behaviour and the asymmetric timeliness of earnings using a quantile regression approach.
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