利用不确定性方法评估威胁食品供应链可持续性的风险因素

Rehab Mohamed, Mahmoud M. Ismail
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摘要

通过降低与食品供应链(FSC)相关的风险因素,我们可以加强食品供应链的复原力,减少食品浪费,提高其可持续性。对影响食品供应链可持续性的风险因素进行优先排序和识别,对于管理不确定性和避免不利后果至关重要。本研究试图确定在不确定环境下影响食品供应链可持续性的最重要风险,并对其进行排序。我们采用α-贴现多标准决策(α-D MCDM)方法对供应风险、需求风险和运营风险这三个主要风险因素进行评估。造成食品供应链风险要素评估难题的主要原因包括评估数据不准确、DM 的主观偏好以及 DM 对标准的不同意见和想法。遗憾的是,早期的研究未能完全解决这些问题。为了弥补这一缺陷,我们提出了一种混合三相中性 MCDM 方法,将三角中性数 (TNN)、TNN-AHP 和 TNN-CoCoSo 整合在一起。通过这种方式,它可以有效地处理模糊性。随后,我们以世界六大食品和饮料企业为例,探讨了所建议框架的应用:雀巢公司(A1)、百事公司(A2)、可口可乐公司(A3)、达能公司(A4)、安海斯-布希-英博公司(A5)和蒙代尔兹国际公司(A6)。结果显示了可持续发展能力从优到劣的排名,这些排名是根据决策者小组对必须处理的风险因素的重要性进行评估后确定的。为了进一步了解该框架的原理和适应性,本研究采用了敏感性评估和比较分析。
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Leveraging an Uncertainty Methodology to Appraise Risk Factors Threatening Sustainability of Food Supply Chain
By diminishing the risk factors associated with the food supply chain (FSC), we have recourse to strengthen the food supply chain's resilience, decrease food waste, and increase its sustainability. Prioritizing and identifying the risk factors impacting the sustainability of the food supply chain is essential for managing uncertainty and averting unfavorable consequences. This study attempts to identify and rank the most significant risks affecting the sustainability of the food supply chain under an uncertain environment. We use the α-Discounting multi-criteria decision-making (α-D MCDM) method for the main three risk factors: the risks of supply, the risks of demand, and the risks of operations. The primary causes of the challenges in assessing the food supply chain's risk elements include inaccurate assessment data, DMs' subjective preferences, and DMs' differing opinions and thoughts about the criteria. Unfortunately, earlier research fell short of fully resolving these issues. A hybrid three-phase neutrosophic MCDM method is proposed by integrating triangular neutrosophic numbers (TNNs), TNN-AHP, and TNN-CoCoSo to close this gap. In this manner, it may efficiently handle ambiguity. The application of the suggested framework is then explored using the top six food and beverage businesses in the world: Nestle (A1), PepsiCo (A2), Coca-Cola (A3), Danon (A4), Anheuser-Busch InBev SA (A5), and Mondelez International (A6). The results show the sustainability rankings from best to worst, which were established on the groups of decision-makers assessments based on the importance of the risk factors that have to be handled. To gain additional insight into the rationale and resilience of this framework, sensitivity evaluation and comparative analysis have been employed in this study.
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