Track Deflection of Typhoon Chanthu (2021) near Taiwan as Investigated Using a High-Resolution Global Model

The Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) with variable resolution (60-15-1 km) is used to investigate the track deflection of Typhoon Chanthu (2021) near Taiwan. Chanthu exhibited a rightward track deflection as it approached southeast Taiwan and underwent a leftward deflection when moving northward offshore of northeast Taiwan. Numerical experiments are conducted to identify the physical processes for the track deflection. The rightward deflection of the northbound typhoon is induced by the recirculating flow resulting from the effect of Taiwan’s topography. A wavenumber-one potential vorticity (PV) budget analysis indicates that horizontal PV advection dominates the earlier rightward deflection, while the later leftward deflection is mainly in response to stronger asymmetric cloud heating at low levels at the offshore quadrant of the typhoon. A pair of cyclonic and anticyclonic gyres in the wavenumber-one flow difference is induced by Taiwan’s topography. These rotate counterclockwise to drive the track deflection, most often in westbound typhoons. Idealized WRF simulations are also conducted to explore the track deflection under different northbound conditions. The simulations confirm the track deflection mechanism with similar PV dynamics to the MPAS simulations for Chanthu and illustrate the variabilities of the track deflection for different steering conditions and vortex origins. The rightward deflection of northbound typhoons is essentially determined by a reduced ratio of R/LE where R is the vortex size and LE is the effective length of the mountain range.