Specialization or Diversification: Which is More Conducive to Foreign Trade Resilience? Evidence from China-Russia Border Regions in Northeast China

Under the background of complex international situation, how to build the special geo-economic space of China-Russia border lies in strengthening their foreign trade resilience against external shocks. Based on empirical evidence from ten prefecture-level China-Russia border regions in Northeast China, this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution of foreign trade resilience under different shocks. Furthermore, through the Panel Regression model, the mechanism of the industrial structure on the foreign trade resilience in contraction period and expansion period was discussed. The results showed that: 1) from 2004 to 2021, foreign trade in China-Russia border regions experienced five phases. The overall foreign trade resilience was higher than expected, showing a rising volatility trend, but there was significant spatial heterogeneity in the ability of cities to cope with shocks. 2) Highly specialized clusters were mainly concentrated in Yichun, Heihe and Da Hinggan Ling Prefecture, while Mudanjiang and Yanbian performed better in related and unrelated diversification. 3) In different stages of economic system evolution, the response mode, degree and result of border foreign trade resilience to regional industrial structure showed obvious stage characteristics. During the contraction period, related diversification was more conducive to improving the resistance through risk spillovers. During the expansion period, specialization played a more significant role in improving regional resilience through self-reinforcing effect. These results are beneficial for expanding the resilience theory, ensuring border economic security and optimizing border industrial investment layout.