Drivers, Trends, and Patterns of Changing Vegetation-greenness in Nansha Islands, China from 2016 to 2022

Changes in vegetation status generally also represents changes in the ecological health of islands and reefs (IRs). However, studies are limited of drivers and trends of vegetation change of Nansha Islands, China and how they relate to climate change and human activities. To resolve this limitation, we studied changes to the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) vegetation-greenness index for 22 IRs of Nansha Islands during normal and extreme conditions. Trends of vegetation greenness were analyzed using Sen’ s slope and Mann-Kendall test at two spatial scales (pixel and island), and driving factor analyses were performed by time-lagged partial correlation analyses. These were related to impacts from human activities and climatic factors under normal (temperature, precipitation, radiation, and Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI)) and extreme conditions (wind speed and latitude of IRs) from 2016 to 2022. Results showed: 1) among the 22 IRs, NDVI increased/decreased significantly in 15/4 IRs, respectively. Huayang Reef had the highest NDVI change-rate (0.48%/mon), and Zhongye Island had the lowest (−0.29%/mon). Local spatial patterns were in one of two forms: dotted-form, and degradation in banded-form. 2) Under normal conditions, human activities (characterized by NDBI) had higher impacts on vegetation-greenness than other factors. 3) Under extreme conditions, wind speed (R² = 0.2337, P < 0.05) and latitude (R² = 0.2769, P < 0.05) provided limited explanation for changes from typhoon events. Our results provide scientific support for the sustainable development of Nansha Islands and the United Nations ‘Ocean Decade’ initiative.