Evolution and Determinants of Population Agglomeration in Less Developed Metropolitan Areas: A Case Study of the Taiyuan Metropolitan Area, China

It is of importance to enhance the urban areas’ capacity for population aggregation in underdeveloped regions, aiming to rectify the imbalanced and insufficient pattern of economic development in China. Taking the Taiyuan Metropolitan Area (TMA) in central China as a case study, this paper examines the evolutionary process and characteristics of population agglomeration from 2000 to 2020, and identifies factors associated with agglomeration and their spatial effects. The findings indicated that: 1) against the background of sustained population shrinkage in the provincial area, the TMA showed a demographic trend of steady increase, albeit with a decelerated growth rate. In the metropolitan area, urban population size continued to grow rapidly, whereas the rural areas endured sustained losses. Disparities in city size continued to widen, and the polarization of concentrated population in the core cities kept increasing. 2) Agglomerations in both secondary and service industries had significant positive effects on local population agglomeration, with the former effect being stronger. Regional economic development, government fiscal expenditure, and financial advancement all contributed to facilitating local population clustering. From a spatial spillover perspective, service agglomeration and financial development promoted population agglomeration in surrounding areas. Conversely, fiscal expenditure inhibited such agglomeration. As for industrial agglomeration and regional economic development, their spatial spillover effects were non-significant. The results obtained reveal several policy implications aimed at enhancing the population agglomeration capacity of the metropolitan area in underdeveloped regions during the new era.