Maria Xiridou, Fuminari Miura, Philippe Adam, Eline Op de Coul, John de Wit, Jacco Wallinga
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The Fading of the Mpox Outbreak Among Men Who Have Sex With Men: A Mathematical Modelling Study.
Background: In the Netherlands, the number of mpox cases started declining before mpox vaccination was initiated. Most cases were men who have sex with men (MSM). We investigated whether the decline in mpox could be attributed to infection-induced immunity or behavioral adaptations.
Methods: We developed a transmission model and accounted for possible behavioral adaptations: fewer casual partners and shorter time until MSM with mpox refrain from sexual contacts.
Results: Without behavioral adaptations, the peak in modelled cases matched observations, but the decline was less steep than observed. With behavioral adaptations in the model, we found a decline of 16%-18% in numbers of casual partners in June and 13%-22% in July 2022. Model results showed a halving of the time before refraining from sex. When mpox vaccination started, 57% of MSM with very high sexual activity in the model had been infected. Model scenarios revealed that the outbreak could have waned by November 2022 even without vaccination.
Conclusions: The limited duration of the mpox outbreak in the Netherlands can be ascribed primarily to infection-induced immunity among MSM with high sexual activity levels. The decline was accelerated by behavioral adaptations. Immunity among those most sexually active is essential to impede mpox resurgence.
期刊介绍：
Published continuously since 1904, The Journal of Infectious Diseases (JID) is the premier global journal for original research on infectious diseases. The editors welcome Major Articles and Brief Reports describing research results on microbiology, immunology, epidemiology, and related disciplines, on the pathogenesis, diagnosis, and treatment of infectious diseases; on the microbes that cause them; and on disorders of host immune responses. JID is an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America.
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