巴西南部巴拉那州日降水量序列的同质性分析

IF 2.8 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Theoretical and Applied Climatology Pub Date : 2024-07-24 DOI:10.1007/s00704-024-05119-x
André Rodrigues da Silva, Bruna Forestieri Bolonhez, Hemerson Donizete Pinheiro
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引用次数: 0

摘要

对极端降水事件的分析在水资源管理、基础设施、公共供水、农业、消防和公共卫生方面发挥着至关重要的作用。要利用历史序列准确描述降水事件,观测到的变化必须完全归因于天气和气候条件。本研究旨在根据四种统计检验方法(SNHT、Buishand、Pettitt 和 Von Neumann)确定巴西南部巴拉那州的同质性测站,并对日降雨量数据进行同质性分析。对时间序列中的缺失值进行了估算,只有数据缺口不超过 25% 的站点才被包括在内。在该州分析的 482 个站点中,73.7%(n = 355)显示出同质性,11.6%(n = 56)被认为是可疑的,14.7%(n = 71)被认为是可疑的。1990 年至 2005 年期间,同质性破坏的数量最多。在此期间,根据 SNHT 方法估计的同质性破坏数量为 75 个(59.1%),根据 Buishand 检验方法估计的同质性破坏数量为 86 个(67.7%),根据 Pettitt 检验方法估计的同质性破坏数量为 89 个(70.1%)。同质性断裂最多的年份是 1998 年,佩蒂特检验确定了 81 个断裂。鉴于该研究分析了大量雨量站样本,这些断裂可能与厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜现象有关。
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Homogeneity analysis of daily precipitation series in Paraná State, Southern Brazil

The analysis of extreme precipitation events plays a crucial role in the management of water resources, infrastructure, public water supply, agriculture, fire control, and public health. For an accurate characterization of precipitation events using historical series, the observed variations must be solely attributable to weather and climate conditions. This study aimed to identify homogeneous gauge stations in Paraná State, southern Brazil, based on four statistical tests (SNHT, Buishand, Pettitt, and Von Neumann) and conduct a homogeneity analysis of daily rainfall data. Missing values were imputed into the time series, and only stations with up to 25% of data gaps were included. Of the 482 stations analyzed in the state, 73.7% (n = 355) demonstrated homogeneity, 11.6% (n = 56) were considered doubtful, and 14.7% (n = 71) were deemed suspect. The highest number of homogeneity breaks was recorded from 1990 to 2005. The number of breaks during this period was estimated at 75 (59.1%) by SNHT, 86 (67.7%) by the Buishand test, and 89 (70.1%) by the Pettitt test. The year with the highest number of homogeneity breaks was 1998, with 81 breaks identified by the Pettitt test. These breaks may be related to El Niño and La Niña phenomena, given that a large sample of rainfall stations was analyzed in the study.

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来源期刊
Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Theoretical and Applied Climatology 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
6.00
自引率
11.80%
发文量
376
审稿时长
4.3 months
期刊介绍: Theoretical and Applied Climatology covers the following topics: - climate modeling, climatic changes and climate forecasting, micro- to mesoclimate, applied meteorology as in agro- and forestmeteorology, biometeorology, building meteorology and atmospheric radiation problems as they relate to the biosphere - effects of anthropogenic and natural aerosols or gaseous trace constituents - hardware and software elements of meteorological measurements, including techniques of remote sensing
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