A methodological framework proposal for managing risk in small-scale farming through the integration of knowledge and data analytics

Climate change and weather variability pose significant challenges to small-scale crop production systems, increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. In this context, data modeling becomes a crucial tool for risk management and promotes producer resilience during losses caused by adverse weather events, particularly within agricultural insurance. However, data modeling requires access to available data representing production system conditions and external risk factors. One of the main problems in the agricultural sector, especially in small-scale farming, is data scarcity, which acts as a barrier to effectively addressing these issues. Data scarcity limits understanding the local-level impacts of climate change and the design of adaptation or mitigation strategies to manage adverse events, directly impacting production system productivity. Integrating knowledge into data modeling is a proposed strategy to address the issue of data scarcity. However, despite different mechanisms for knowledge representation, a methodological framework to integrate knowledge into data modeling is lacking.This paper proposes developing a methodological framework (MF) to guide the characterization, extraction, representation, and integration of knowledge into data modeling, supporting the application of data solutions for small farmers. The development of the MF encompasses three phases. The first phase involves identifying the information underlying the MF. To achieve this, elements such as the type of knowledge managed in agriculture, data structure types, knowledge extraction methods, and knowledge representation methods were identified using the systematic review framework proposed by Kitchemhan, considering their limitations and the tools employed. In the second phase of MF construction, the gathered information was utilized to design the process modeling of the MF using the Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN).Finally, in the third phase of MF development, an evaluation was conducted using the expert weighting method.As a result, it was possible to theoretically verify that the proposed MF facilitates the integration of knowledge into data models. The MF serves as a foundation for establishing adaptation and mitigation strategies against adverse events stemming from climate variability and change in small-scale production systems, especially under conditions of data scarcity.The developed MF provides a structured approach to managing data scarcity in small-scale farming by effectively integrating knowledge into data modeling processes. This integration enhances the capacity to design and implement robust adaptation and mitigation strategies, thereby improving the resilience and productivity of small-scale crop production systems in the face of climate variability and change. Future research could focus on the practical application of this MF and its impact on small-scale farming practices, further validating its effectiveness and scalability.