Flow Analysis of Mastectomy Patients Using Length of Stay: A Single-Center Study

Background: Malignant breast cancer is the most common cancer affecting women worldwide. The COVID-19 pandemic appears to have slowed the diagnostic process, leading to an enhanced use of invasive approaches such as mastectomy. The increased use of a surgical procedure pushes towards an objective analysis of patient flow with measurable quality indicators such as length of stay (LOS) in order to optimize it. Methods: In this work, different regression and classification models were implemented to analyze the total LOS as a function of a set of independent variables (age, gender, pre-op LOS, discharge ward, year of discharge, type of procedure, presence of hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, secondary tumors, and surgery with complications) extracted from the discharge records of patients undergoing mastectomy at the ‘San Giovanni di Dio e Ruggi d’Aragona’ University Hospital of Salerno (Italy) in the years 2011–2021. In addition, the impact of COVID-19 was assessed by statistically comparing data from patients discharged in 2018–2019 with those discharged in 2020–2021. Results: The results obtained generally show the good performance of the regression models in characterizing the particular case studies. Among the models, the best at predicting the LOS from the set of variables described above was polynomial regression, with an R2 value above 0.689. The classification algorithms that operated on a LOS divided into 3 arbitrary classes also proved to be good tools, reaching 79% accuracy with the voting classifier. Among the independent variables, both implemented models showed that the ward of discharge, year of discharge, type of procedure and complications during surgery had the greatest impact on LOS. The final focus to assess the impact of COVID-19 showed a statically significant increase in surgical complications. Conclusion: Through this study, it was possible to validate the use of regression and classification models to characterize the total LOS of mastectomy patients. LOS proves to be an excellent indicator of performance, and through its analysis with advanced methods, such as machine learning algorithms, it is possible to understand which of the demographic and organizational variables collected have a significant impact and thus build simple predictors to support healthcare management.