{"title":"气候变化下 CMIP6 模型中的未来全球河冰","authors":"Yu Lin, Haishen Lü, K. Lindenschmidt, Zhongbo Yu, Yonghua Zhu, Mingwen Liu, Tingxing Chen","doi":"10.1175/jamc-d-23-0208.1","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"\nRiver ice changes due to climate change significantly impact river hydrology, economies, and societies. This study employed the CMIP6 data and a river ice model to predict global river ice changes in response to climate change. Results indicate significant declines in global river ice due to global warming. With each 1°C increase in surface air temperature (SAT) in the future, river ice extent of ice-affected rivers decrease by 2.11 percentage points, and ice duration shorten by 8.4 days. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the long-term mean SAT is 1.2°C to 2.5°C higher than in the near-term. This leads to a 1.9 percentage points to 4.4 percentage points decrease in global river ice extent, a 6.8 to 15.1-day decrease in river ice duration, and ice-free rivers increasing by up to 4.02%. The SSP5-8.5 scenario predicts a warmer long-term mean SAT, leading to greater reductions in river ice. Geographically, river ice loss is most notable in North America, Europe, Siberia, and the Tibetan Plateau (TIB), particularly in peninsular, coastal, and mountainous regions due to the combined effects of initial temperatures and temperature increases. Overall, the E.Europe (EEU) shows the greatest loss of river ice on average. Monthly analyses show the most substantial decreases from October to June, indicating pronounced seasonal variability. This study provides valuable insights for addressing challenges related to river ice changes in high-latitude and high-elevation regions.","PeriodicalId":15027,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Future Global River Ice in CMIP6 Models under Climate Change\",\"authors\":\"Yu Lin, Haishen Lü, K. Lindenschmidt, Zhongbo Yu, Yonghua Zhu, Mingwen Liu, Tingxing Chen\",\"doi\":\"10.1175/jamc-d-23-0208.1\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"\\nRiver ice changes due to climate change significantly impact river hydrology, economies, and societies. This study employed the CMIP6 data and a river ice model to predict global river ice changes in response to climate change. Results indicate significant declines in global river ice due to global warming. With each 1°C increase in surface air temperature (SAT) in the future, river ice extent of ice-affected rivers decrease by 2.11 percentage points, and ice duration shorten by 8.4 days. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the long-term mean SAT is 1.2°C to 2.5°C higher than in the near-term. This leads to a 1.9 percentage points to 4.4 percentage points decrease in global river ice extent, a 6.8 to 15.1-day decrease in river ice duration, and ice-free rivers increasing by up to 4.02%. The SSP5-8.5 scenario predicts a warmer long-term mean SAT, leading to greater reductions in river ice. Geographically, river ice loss is most notable in North America, Europe, Siberia, and the Tibetan Plateau (TIB), particularly in peninsular, coastal, and mountainous regions due to the combined effects of initial temperatures and temperature increases. Overall, the E.Europe (EEU) shows the greatest loss of river ice on average. Monthly analyses show the most substantial decreases from October to June, indicating pronounced seasonal variability. This study provides valuable insights for addressing challenges related to river ice changes in high-latitude and high-elevation regions.\",\"PeriodicalId\":15027,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-07-18\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-23-0208.1\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-23-0208.1","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Future Global River Ice in CMIP6 Models under Climate Change
River ice changes due to climate change significantly impact river hydrology, economies, and societies. This study employed the CMIP6 data and a river ice model to predict global river ice changes in response to climate change. Results indicate significant declines in global river ice due to global warming. With each 1°C increase in surface air temperature (SAT) in the future, river ice extent of ice-affected rivers decrease by 2.11 percentage points, and ice duration shorten by 8.4 days. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the long-term mean SAT is 1.2°C to 2.5°C higher than in the near-term. This leads to a 1.9 percentage points to 4.4 percentage points decrease in global river ice extent, a 6.8 to 15.1-day decrease in river ice duration, and ice-free rivers increasing by up to 4.02%. The SSP5-8.5 scenario predicts a warmer long-term mean SAT, leading to greater reductions in river ice. Geographically, river ice loss is most notable in North America, Europe, Siberia, and the Tibetan Plateau (TIB), particularly in peninsular, coastal, and mountainous regions due to the combined effects of initial temperatures and temperature increases. Overall, the E.Europe (EEU) shows the greatest loss of river ice on average. Monthly analyses show the most substantial decreases from October to June, indicating pronounced seasonal variability. This study provides valuable insights for addressing challenges related to river ice changes in high-latitude and high-elevation regions.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology (JAMC) (ISSN: 1558-8424; eISSN: 1558-8432) publishes applied research on meteorology and climatology. Examples of meteorological research include topics such as weather modification, satellite meteorology, radar meteorology, boundary layer processes, physical meteorology, air pollution meteorology (including dispersion and chemical processes), agricultural and forest meteorology, mountain meteorology, and applied meteorological numerical models. Examples of climatological research include the use of climate information in impact assessments, dynamical and statistical downscaling, seasonal climate forecast applications and verification, climate risk and vulnerability, development of climate monitoring tools, and urban and local climates.