研究 "二线 "城市群住房市场的方法论

S. Kozhevnikov, N. V. Voroshilov, I. A. Kryukov
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引用次数: 0

摘要

研究方法:研究方法的基础是城市聚集和市场一体化理论。采用了一般科学方法(分析、综合、结构-功能)、经济和统计方法(确定发展趋势、评估当地住房市场的一体化)、专题分析(研究市场分析方法)、管理框架分析。结果:提出并检验了研究城市群住房市场的方法,其特点是在俄罗斯统计局数据分析和专业信息资源的基础上进行时空预测分析。根据测试结果,确定了集聚区在规模、住房建设空间方向方面的特征,并确定了三种类型:核心区在住房总量中所占份额增加(卡卢加、汉蒂-曼西斯克、诺里尔斯克);核心区和一个邻近城市(沃洛格达、坦波夫、尤日诺-萨哈林斯克);卫星区城市(阿尔汉格尔斯克、苏尔古特)。经证实,后一种类型是一般处于较成熟发展阶段的城市群的特征。结果表明,比例失调不仅表现在住房的数量特征上,而且在卫星区的住房质量较低。结论和现实意义:研究证实,在 "二线 "城市群中,住房部门的集聚效应并不能确保当地核心市场和卫星区域的空间一体化。事实证明,只有在苏尔古特和阿尔汉格尔斯克城市群中才能看到向一体化发展的趋势。研究结果可用于制定这些地区的发展战略文件和项目。这项研究的前景在于为城市群住房市场的发展奠定制度和经济基础。
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The methodical approach to the study of the housing market of urban agglomerations of the “second-tier”
Purpose: is to substantiate and test the methodological approach to the study of the housing market of “second-tier” urban agglomerations in a spatio-temporal projection.Methods: the methodological basis of the study was the theories of urban agglomeration and market integration. General scientific (analysis, synthesis, structural-functional), economic and statistical methods (identification of development trends, assessment of the integration of local housing markets), monographic analysis (research of approaches to market analysis), analysis of the regulatory framework were used.Results: the methodological approach to the study of the housing market of agglomerations is proposed and tested, the peculiarity of which is its analysis in a spatio-temporal projection based on analytics of Rosstat data and specialized information resources. Based on the results of its testing, the features of agglomerations were identified in terms of scale, spatial orientation of housing construction, and three types were identified: with an increase in the share of the core in the total volume of housing stock (Kaluga, Khanty-Mansiysk, Norilsk); core and one adjacent municipality (Vologda, Tambov, Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk); municipalities of the satellite zone (Arkhangelsk, Surgut). It is substantiated that the latter type is characteristic of agglomerations, that are generally at more mature stages of development. It was revealed that disproportions are manifested not only in the quantitative characteristics of housing, but its lower quality is noted in the satellite zone. It is shown that these features lead to a decrease in the potential for the development of integration processes in the market, which is also manifested in the weak transmission of price signals in the agglomeration space.Conclusions and Relevance: the hypothesis has been confirmed that in “second-tier” agglomerations, the agglomeration effects in the housing sector do not ensure spatial integration of the local core markets and satellite zone. It is substantiated that the movement towards integration is observed only in the Surgut and Arkhangelsk agglomerations. The results obtained can be used in the development of the strategic documents and projects for the development of these territories. The prospects of the study are seen in the development of institutional and economic foundations for the development of the housing market in agglomerations.
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