Response and prediction of ecosystem service values to land use change resulting from underground coal mining in high groundwater table areas: A case study of Jining City, China

Ecosystem services are crucial for human survival and development. Changes in land use can lead to alterations in ecosystem service functions. However, the mechanism of how land use changes resulting from underground coal mining affect ecosystem service remains unclear, especially in areas with high groundwater levels. To address this issue, we studied the spatiotemporal in land use change in Jining City from 2000 to 2020 and employed Markov-PIM (probability integration method)-PLUS (Patch-generate Land Use Simulation) model to simulate land use change and ecosystem service values (ESV) in Jining City by 2030 under four different scenarios. The results indicate that from 2000 to 2020, the area of ecological space increased by 169.99 km², and the area of living space expanded by 775.28 km², while the area of production space decreased by 945.27 km², conversely. These changes led to a 3 million yuan increase in total ESV. From 2020 to 2030, there was a marked decline in ESV under both natural development (ND) and living space preference (LSP) scenarios, with decreases of 0.59 billion yuan and 1.38 billion yuan, respectively. In contrast, in production space preference (PSP) and ecological space preference (ESP) scenarios, ESV increase by 0.22 billion yuan and 0.34 billion yuan. The ESP scenario is an effective strategy to strengthen environmental protection, significantly improve the ESV level of Jining City and meet the development goals of Jining City. Finally, the study concludes with recommendations like comprehensive management, industrial upgrading, and collaborative development for optimizing Jining City's future land use and enhance ESV for urban development.