{"title":"主权动量货币回报","authors":"Giovanni Calice , Ming-Tsung Lin","doi":"10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103472","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the relationship between cross-sectional sovereign credit risk and currency spot prices. We find that past (up to 12-month average) sovereign credit risk, measured by sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads, predict future currency spot returns. In particular, we document a significant cross-sectional currency portfolio spread in excess of the risk-free rate of return (up to 9.6% p.a.) between the highest and the lowest quintile sovereign CDS spreads. Overall, our results indicate that sovereign credit risk is systematically important for currency returns. Moreover, the level of sovereign credit risk has a persistent effect on currency returns which is consistent with a sovereign momentum effect.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48226,"journal":{"name":"International Review of Financial Analysis","volume":"96 ","pages":"Article 103472"},"PeriodicalIF":7.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Sovereign momentum currency returns\",\"authors\":\"Giovanni Calice , Ming-Tsung Lin\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.irfa.2024.103472\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>We study the relationship between cross-sectional sovereign credit risk and currency spot prices. We find that past (up to 12-month average) sovereign credit risk, measured by sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads, predict future currency spot returns. In particular, we document a significant cross-sectional currency portfolio spread in excess of the risk-free rate of return (up to 9.6% p.a.) between the highest and the lowest quintile sovereign CDS spreads. Overall, our results indicate that sovereign credit risk is systematically important for currency returns. Moreover, the level of sovereign credit risk has a persistent effect on currency returns which is consistent with a sovereign momentum effect.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":48226,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"International Review of Financial Analysis\",\"volume\":\"96 \",\"pages\":\"Article 103472\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":7.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-11-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"International Review of Financial Analysis\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057521924004046\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"BUSINESS, FINANCE\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Review of Financial Analysis","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057521924004046","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
We study the relationship between cross-sectional sovereign credit risk and currency spot prices. We find that past (up to 12-month average) sovereign credit risk, measured by sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads, predict future currency spot returns. In particular, we document a significant cross-sectional currency portfolio spread in excess of the risk-free rate of return (up to 9.6% p.a.) between the highest and the lowest quintile sovereign CDS spreads. Overall, our results indicate that sovereign credit risk is systematically important for currency returns. Moreover, the level of sovereign credit risk has a persistent effect on currency returns which is consistent with a sovereign momentum effect.
期刊介绍：
The International Review of Financial Analysis (IRFA) is an impartial refereed journal designed to serve as a platform for high-quality financial research. It welcomes a diverse range of financial research topics and maintains an unbiased selection process. While not limited to U.S.-centric subjects, IRFA, as its title suggests, is open to valuable research contributions from around the world.
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