Unveiling seasonal nitrate contamination dynamics in cropland sub-watersheds: A geo-morphological analysis of the bilate agricultural watershed

Cropland sub-watershed surface and groundwater contamination are pressing issues for water management. This study examines the impact of sediment transport indices (STI) on nitrate concentration in downstream water bodies. The research highlights rainfall's significant role in predicting seasonal nitrate levels. Employing GIS-SWPT tools and hydro-geomorphologic analysis, cropland sub-watersheds, particularly sub-watersheds one and three, are prioritized for their high contribution to downstream surface and groundwater nitrate contamination, with prioritization values of 105.58 and 180.63, respectively. Statistical analysis, conducted using Python's scikit-learn library, validated the findings of the study, with the model's F-statistic of 79.63 and a corresponding p-value of 0.0147 underscoring its overall significance. However, while STI alone showed a prioritization parametric correlation coefficient of 0.5077, suggesting other external factors also contribute to nitrate loading, a strong relationship between STI and nitrate concentration was revealed (R² of 0.993). This integrated approach enhances understanding of how geomorphologic parameters of cropland sub-watersheds influence water quality downstream. By clarifying the complex interactions between sediment transport and nitrate concentration, evidence-based strategies can be developed to mitigate surface and groundwater nitrate pollution. This research provides valuable insights into cropland sub-watershed pollution dynamics and informs targeted management interventions.