用于巴伦邦机场风速预测的深度学习技术

Akbar rizki Ramadhan, Tri Basuki Kurniawan, Misinem, Izman Hardiansyah, E. S. Negara
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摘要

苏丹马哈茂德-巴达鲁丁(SMB)二世巴伦邦气象站是气象、气候和地球物理局(BMKG)的一个技术执行单位(UPT),在传播实际天气信息方面发挥着作用,尤其是在苏丹马哈茂德-巴达鲁丁二世巴伦邦机场。我们会观测各种天气参数,风速就是其中之一。在飞机起飞和降落过程中,风速是机场工作人员(包括飞行员和空中交通管制员)使用的一个重要参数。本研究重点分析和评估了使用 LSTM(长短期记忆)、GRU(门控循环单元)和 BiLSTM(双向长短期记忆)架构的三种深度学习方法。气压、降雨量、湿度和温度等时间序列数据被用作预测因子。数据来源于 AWOS(自动气象观测系统)设备。使用上述架构的深度学习方法处理数据后,将进行分析,以确定哪种架构模型在预测 SMB II Palembang 机场风速时损失误差率最低,因而最为准确。结果表明,与 LSTM 和 BiLSTM 架构相比,GRU 深度学习架构的损失值最低,因此能更好地预测未来 12 小时和 24 小时的风速,RMSE 分别为 1.62 和 1.77。
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Deep Learning Techniques for Wind Speed Forecasting at Palembang Airport
The Sultan Mahmud Badaruddin (SMB) II Palembang Meteorological Station is a technical implementation unit (UPT) of the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) that plays a role in disseminating actual weather information, particularly at SMBII Palembang Airport. Various weather parameters are observed, one of which is wind speed. During the take-off and landing processes, wind speed is a crucial parameter used by airport personnel, including pilots and air traffic controllers (ATC). This study focuses on analyzingand evaluating three deep learning methods using the architectures of LSTM (Long Short Term Memory), GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit), and BiLSTM (Bidirectional Long Short Term Memory). Time series data such as air pressure, rainfall, humidity, and temperature are used as predictors. The data is sourced from the AWOS (Automatic Weather Observation System) device. After processing the data using deep learning methods with the architectures above, an analysis will be conducted to determine which architecture model is the most accurate based on the lowest loss error rate in forecasting wind speed at SMB II Palembang Airport. The results show that the GRU deep learning architecture has the lowest loss value compared to the LSTM and BiLSTM architectures so that it can produce better wind speed forecasts in the next 12 hours and 24 hours, with RMSE of 1.62 and 1.77, respectively
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