Strategic assessment of groundwater potential zones: a hybrid geospatial approach

Groundwater aquifers constitute the primary water supply for populations in arid regions, exemplified by the Goharkooh Plain in Iran's driest drainage basin, where conditions of high evapotranspiration and low precipitation prevail. With the escalating demand for water resources, driven mainly by agricultural expansion, the strategic management of groundwater assets has become increasingly critical. This study focuses on delineating groundwater potential zones (GWPZs) through an integrated approach combining multi-criteria decision analysis and geospatial tools. Based on an extensive literature review, nine thematic layers were selected and developed: lithology, geology, drainage density, slope gradient, elevation, vegetation cover, lineament density, land use, and precipitation. These criteria were initially weighted using the analytical hierarchical process (AHP) and subsequently integrated via weighted overlay analysis. In this research, the strategic selection of thematic layers for assessing groundwater potential in arid regions has been identified as an innovative approach that could significantly advance studies in similar settings. The analysis revealed that approximately 60% of the study area, primarily in the southwestern parts, exhibited moderate to very high groundwater potential. This potential is primarily attributed to the presence of alluvial deposits, low drainage density, and favorable slope and elevation conditions. Applying the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve yields an area under the curve (AUC) of 81.5%, indicating a relatively high level of predictive accuracy. These findings demonstrate the efficacy of this integrated approach, suggesting its broader applicability in regions with analogous groundwater challenges and management needs.