Occurrence and potential diffusion of pine wilt disease mediated by insect vectors in China under climate change.
Background: Pine wilt disease (PWD), a major international quarantined forest pest, causes serious ecological and economic damage to Pinus species in Asia and Europe. In China, PWD has spread northeasterly and northwesterly beyond its original northern limits. Consequently, an evaluation of the insect vector-mediated occurrence and potential diffusion of PWD is needed to identify important transmission routes and control the spread of disease.
Results: An optimized MaxEnt model was used to assess the current and future geographical distribution of Bursaphelenchus xylophilus and its insect vectors in China. The predicted suitable area for B. xylophilus colonization is currently 212.32 × 104 km2 and mainly concentrated in Central, East, Southwest and South China, although is anticipated to include the northwestern regions of China in the future. As for the insect vectors, Monochamus alternatus and M. saltuarius are expected to spread toward the northwest and southwest, respectively. The maximum predicted dispersion area of PWD mediated by M. alternatus, M. saltuarius and both species was 91.85 × 104, 218.76 × 104 and 29.99 × 104 km2, respectively, with potential diffusion areas being anticipated to increase in the future. Both the suitable probabilities and areas of B. xylophilus and its insect vectors were found to vary substantially along the latitudinal gradient, with the latitudinal range of these species being predicted to expand in the future.
期刊介绍:
Pest Management Science is the international journal of research and development in crop protection and pest control. Since its launch in 1970, the journal has become the premier forum for papers on the discovery, application, and impact on the environment of products and strategies designed for pest management.
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